RBC
RBC Bearings Incorporated
NYSE: RBC · INDUSTRIALS · TOOLS & ACCESSORIES
$611.54
+0.06% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$18.74B
P/E ratio
65.10
P/S ratio
10.02x
EPS (TTM)
$9.10
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$363 – $632
Volume
0.2M
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed RBC price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$611.54
Today
Analyst consensus
$584.00
-4.50% · 12M
2030 Base
$721.77
+18.02% future
NPV today
$415.94
@ 13% WACC
8 analysts:
6 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Dr. Michael J. Hartnett has not disclosed explicit multi-year revenue targets in available guidance. However, Q4 FY2026 results show record aerospace & defense backlog of $2.3B (up 32.9% YoY in A&D segment) with Q1 FY2027 guidance of $500M–$510M (midpoint $505M). Management emphasized sustained A&D momentum, LTA repricing tailwinds, and marine revenue growth as key 2027+ drivers. No specific 2030 target disclosed, but backlog trajectory and capacity expansion support continued double-digit growth.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
RBC · RBC Bearings Incorporated · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$322.24
NPV today: $185.70
Base case (2030)
$721.77
NPV today: $415.94
Bull case (2030)
$1,254.48
NPV today: $722.93
WallStSmart.com
RBC financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | $2.5B | $3.1B | $3.7B | $4.2B |
| Revenue growth | 14.3% | 25.2% | 23.2% | 18.6% | 15.0% |
| Net margin | — | 23.3% | 23.6% | 23.5% | 23.6% |
| EPS | $12.38 | $18.50 | $23.10 | $27.20 | $31.40 |
| Diluted shares | — | 32M | 32M | 32M | 32M |
| Net debt | — | $-517.69M | $-872.27M | $-1.29B | $-1.78B |
| P/S multiple | — | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $414.04 | $516.88 | $620.33 | $721.77 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.2B | $4.2B | $4.2B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 5.0x | 9.0x |
| Diluted shares | 32M | 32M | 32M |
| Net debt | $-1.78B | $-1.78B | $-1.78B |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 23x | 40x |
| 2030 Price | $322.24 | $721.77 | $1,254.48 |
| NPV @ 13% | $185.70 | $415.94 | $722.93 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because RBC is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $721.77 base case
RBC catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Record $2.3B aerospace & defense backlog conversion (41.2% A&D growth in Q4 FY2026) supporting sustained 30%+ growth in A&D through 2027–2028 as aircraft production rates accelerate
+ LTA (long-term agreement) repricing initiatives in aerospace segment unlocking margin expansion and higher realized prices on backlog conversion
+ Successful integration of VACCO acquisition and marine/subsea revenue ramp contributing $100M–$150M incremental revenue by 2028
+ Industrial segment stabilization and growth resumption as manufacturing capex rebounds post-2026 softness; current guidance $500M–$510M Q1 FY2027 indicates base business resilience
Key risks
- Aerospace production rate deceleration if OEM guidance pulls back or supply chain delays prevent backlog conversion at projected pace (stock fell 7% post Q4 despite beat, signaling execution risk)
- Customer concentration in aerospace (41% of revenue) creates cyclical earnings risk; any major defense/commercial aerospace budget delays cascade revenue impact
- Industrial segment soft patch may persist through 2026–2027 if manufacturing capex cycle weaker than historical averages; current margin pressure limits upside if A&D growth slows
- Valuation at 69.9x P/E and 9.59x P/S leaves minimal room for error; any 2027 guidance miss could trigger sharp repricing
Methodology · RBC Bearings Incorporated 2030 stock forecast model
RBC Bearings Incorporated 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 8 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for RBC by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.78B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 13% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.491) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 5.0x / bull 9.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
RBC price target FAQ
What is the RBC price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's RBC Bearings Incorporated 2030 base case is $721.77 per share, with a bull case of $1,254.48 and bear case of $322.24. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 13% WACC is $415.94.
How is the RBC Bearings Incorporated 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The RBC 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the RBC price target account for dilution?
RBC Bearings Incorporated is projected to grow diluted share count from 32M to 32M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on RBC stock?
8 analysts cover RBC with an average 12-month price target of $584.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.