RACE
Ferrari NV
NYSE: RACE · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · AUTO MANUFACTURERS
$354.91
-2.93% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$62.33B
P/E ratio
33.79
P/S ratio
8.65x
EPS (TTM)
$10.47
Dividend yield
1.19%
52W range
$309 – $513
Volume
0.7M
Ferrari NV (RACE) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed RACE price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$354.91
Today
Analyst consensus
$469.06
+32.16% · 12M
2030 Base
$273.28
-23.00% future
NPV today
$194.13
@ 8% WACC
16 analysts:
11 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna has confirmed full-year 2026 guidance with reaffirmed confidence despite Middle East disruptions. The company targets sustained double-digit revenue growth driven by new model launches (first all-electric Luce in late 2026, 12 Cilindri grand tourer), extended order book through end of 2027, and disciplined production strategy focused on exclusivity and pricing power. Management emphasizes capability to grow high-margin revenue through 2030 while maintaining brand exclusivity and delivering on €3.5B shareholder buyback program.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
RACE · Ferrari NV · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$191.29
NPV today: $135.89
Base case (2030)
$273.28
NPV today: $194.13
Bull case (2030)
$601.21
NPV today: $427.08
WallStSmart.com
RACE financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.1B | $8.3B | $9.7B | $11.3B | $12.8B | $14.5B |
| Revenue growth | 7.0% | 15.9% | 17.1% | 15.9% | 14.1% | 13.1% |
| Net margin | — | 23.3% | 23.1% | 23.2% | 23.3% | 23.5% |
| EPS | $8.96 | $10.95 | $12.68 | $14.75 | $16.92 | $19.28 |
| Diluted shares | — | 176M | 177M | 177M | 177M | 177M |
| Net debt | — | $432.58M | $-627.23M | $-1.86B | $-3.26B | $-4.84B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $138.48 | $168.49 | $201.45 | $236.10 | $273.28 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.5B | $14.5B | $14.5B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 177M | 177M | 177M |
| Net debt | $-4.84B | $-4.84B | $-4.84B |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 14x | 31x |
| 2030 Price | $191.29 | $273.28 | $601.21 |
| NPV @ 8% | $135.89 | $194.13 | $427.08 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because RACE is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $273.28 base case
RACE catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Launch of first all-electric vehicle (Luce) in late 2026 — expands addressable market and appeals to ESG-conscious ultra-high-net-worth buyers
+ 12 Cilindri grand tourer ramp and model mix shift — higher ASP and personalization revenue per unit
+ Extended order book through end of 2027 — provides high-confidence revenue visibility with long backlog and pricing power
+ €3.5B share buyback through 2030 — ongoing EPS accretion and shareholder value enhancement
+ Formula 1 brand elevation and sponsorship revenue — Hamilton transition and Ferrari dominance narrative
Key risks
- Iran-Gulf conflict logistics disruptions — Middle East represents meaningful portion of ultra-luxury demand; deliveries already halted in March 2026
- US tariff uncertainty and potential auto tariffs under Trump administration — could impact margins or demand from US buyers
- EV transition execution risk — Luce and future EV lineup must maintain brand exclusivity and pricing power; unproven in ultra-luxury segment
- Economic downturn affecting ultra-high-net-worth consumption — luxury cyclical exposure; recession could compress order backlog conversion
- Production capacity constraints — intentional exclusivity strategy limits upside revenue despite demand, creates ceiling on growth
Methodology · Ferrari NV 2030 stock forecast model
Ferrari NV 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 16 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for RACE by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-4.84B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.587) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
RACE price target FAQ
What is the RACE price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Ferrari NV 2030 base case is $273.28 per share, with a bull case of $601.21 and bear case of $191.29. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $194.13.
How is the Ferrari NV 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The RACE 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the RACE price target account for dilution?
Ferrari NV is projected to grow diluted share count from 176M to 177M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on RACE stock?
16 analysts cover RACE with an average 12-month price target of $469.06. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.