QCOM
Qualcomm Incorporated
NASDAQ: QCOM · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$211.72
+4.32% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$263.51B
P/E ratio
26.88
P/S ratio
5.92x
EPS (TTM)
$9.30
Dividend yield
1.48%
52W range
$122 – $260
Volume
21.3M
Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed QCOM price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$211.72
Today
Analyst consensus
$181.79
-14.14% · 12M
2030 Base
$198.79
-6.11% future
NPV today
$114.56
@ 13% WACC
34 analysts:
14 Buy16 Hold6 Sell
Management guidance
Qualcomm has not disclosed specific multi-year revenue targets or CEO guidance for 2026-2030 in available sources. Management emphasized diversification into automotive, IoT, and data center AI (Snapdragon X100 CPU platform), with on-device AI and licensing as growth drivers. No explicit CAGR or revenue floor targets available for outer years.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
QCOM · Qualcomm Incorporated · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$121.70
NPV today: $70.13
Base case (2030)
$198.79
NPV today: $114.56
Bull case (2030)
$430.07
NPV today: $247.84
WallStSmart.com
QCOM financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.3B | $45.2B | $52.3B | $64.8B | $76.1B | $85.4B |
| Revenue growth | 13.7% | 2.2% | 15.6% | 23.9% | 17.4% | 12.2% |
| Net margin | — | 26.9% | 27.2% | 28.3% | 28.1% | 28.1% |
| EPS | $3.50 | $11.40 | $13.20 | $16.85 | $19.45 | $21.65 |
| Diluted shares | — | 1067M | 1078M | 1089M | 1099M | 1108M |
| Net debt | — | $-4.32B | $-12.79B | $-23.28B | $-35.59B | $-49.42B |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $88.80 | $108.85 | $140.36 | $170.88 | $198.79 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $85.4B | $85.4B | $85.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 1108M | 1108M | 1108M |
| Net debt | $-49.42B | $-49.42B | $-49.42B |
| Implied P/E † | 6x | 9x | 20x |
| 2030 Price | $121.70 | $198.79 | $430.07 |
| NPV @ 13% | $70.13 | $114.56 | $247.84 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because QCOM is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $198.79 base case
QCOM catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AI smartphone and PC chip adoption (on-device AI expansion across premium tiers)
+ Automotive and IoT revenue acceleration (stated diversification priority; lower cyclicality)
+ Data center AI CPU ramp (Snapdragon X100 competing against Intel/ARM in cloud inference)
+ 5G FWA and infrastructure (Samsung validation achieved May 2026; addressable telecom TAM)
+ Licensing revenue stabilization/growth (non-chip recurring revenue from patent portfolio)
+ Potential US-China trade normalization (reduces geopolitical discount)
Key risks
- Smartphone market saturation and iPhone cycle volatility (handset segment weakness already noted Q2 2026)
- Intense competition in AI chips from NVIDIA (data center dominance), AMD, Intel (x86 server/client), and custom ASICs (Apple, Google, Tesla)
- Reliance on TSMC for manufacturing (geopolitical/capacity constraints); no in-house fab
- Data center AI CPU execution risk (Snapdragon X100 unproven at scale vs. entrenched x86 incumbents)
- Regulatory and tariff headwinds (US-China trade tensions; potential ARM licensing restrictions)
- Cyclical semiconductor downturn (current Q2 2026 handset weakness; inventory normalization risk 2027-2028)
- Valuation compression (analyst consensus price target $181.79 implies -10.2% downside; P/E 21.5x above semiconductor sector average)
Methodology · Qualcomm Incorporated 2030 stock forecast model
Qualcomm Incorporated 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 34 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (5% cumulative for QCOM by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-49.42B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 13% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.493) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
QCOM price target FAQ
What is the QCOM price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Qualcomm Incorporated 2030 base case is $198.79 per share, with a bull case of $430.07 and bear case of $121.70. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 13% WACC is $114.56.
How is the Qualcomm Incorporated 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The QCOM 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the QCOM price target account for dilution?
Qualcomm Incorporated is projected to grow diluted share count from 1054M to 1108M by 2030 (a 5% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 5%.
What is the analyst consensus on QCOM stock?
34 analysts cover QCOM with an average 12-month price target of $181.79. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.