WallStSmart
PSX

Phillips 66

NYSE: PSX · ENERGY · OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING

$173.49
+5.06% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$65.30B
P/E ratio
15.08
P/S ratio
0.49x
EPS (TTM)
$10.80
Dividend yield
2.98%
52W range
$99 – $191
Volume
3.3M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Phillips 66 (PSX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$173.49
Consensus
$158.47
-8.66%
2030 Target
$4,352.39
+2408.73%
DCF
$215.24
+24.97% MoS
19 analysts:
5 Buy10 Hold2 Sell

Management guidance

No specific CEO revenue targets found in provided data. Management has communicated midstream segment EBITDA target of $4.5B by 2027 (up from current levels), indicating confidence in growth. Recent strategic portfolio transformation and refining margin expansion serve as operational growth drivers, but explicit revenue guidance through 2030 is absent from available materials.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$7,242.23
$145.1B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$4,352.39
$145.1B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$2,889.84
$145.1B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$147.3B$143.1B$132.2B$136.8B$138.0B$140.5B$142.8B$145.1B
Revenue growth—-2.8%-7.6%3.3%0.9%1.8%1.6%1.6%
EPS$15.80$6.10$6.47$11.26$12.61$13.50$14.20$14.90
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$4,088.07$4,140.94$4,211.42$4,281.90$4,352.39

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Refining margin expansion from geopolitical disruptions (Iran/Strait of Hormuz) sustaining crude supply tightness through 2026-2027
+ Midstream segment EBITDA growth trajectory targeting $4.5B by 2027, driving downstream margin stability
+ Strategic portfolio transformation and operational improvements in renewable fuels and marketing segments
+ Tight European diesel markets and high global fuel demand supporting pricing power through 2027
Key risks
- Mark-to-market derivative losses ($900M in Q1 2026) indicate significant commodity price volatility exposure and hedging challenges
- Refining margins are cyclical and dependent on crude/product spreads; current elevated levels unsustainable long-term
- Middle East peace resolution would collapse geopolitical oil premium, compressing refining margins 40-60%
- Transition to renewable energy and EV adoption structurally pressures downstream refining demand post-2028
- Capital intensity of midstream buildout may constrain free cash flow and limit shareholder returns

Methodology

Phillips 66's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 19 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.