PEN
Penumbra Inc
NYSE: PEN · HEALTHCARE · MEDICAL DEVICES
$321.71
-0.03% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$12.54B
P/E ratio
73.61
P/S ratio
8.62x
EPS (TTM)
$4.33
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$221 – $362
Volume
0.5M
Penumbra Inc (PEN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed PEN price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$321.71
Today
Analyst consensus
$361.33
+12.32% · 12M
2030 Base
$323.10
+0.43% future
NPV today
$221.82
@ 9% WACC
17 analysts:
3 Buy14 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Penumbra has NOT provided specific revenue guidance for 2026-2030 due to pending Boston Scientific acquisition (announced Jan 2026, shareholder approval May 6, 2026). Company suspended full-year 2026 guidance on May 6, 2026 earnings call. CEO stated thrombectomy and embolization are 'fast-growing' segments with significant TAM expansion, but no quantified targets disclosed.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysismedium confidence
PEN · Penumbra Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$167.87
NPV today: $115.25
Base case (2030)
$323.10
NPV today: $221.82
Bull case (2030)
$711.19
NPV today: $488.26
WallStSmart.com
PEN financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.7B | $3.1B |
| Revenue growth | 17.5% | 16.0% | 17.5% | 17.0% | 16.4% | 15.2% |
| Net margin | — | 13.5% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 15.1% | 15.3% |
| EPS | $3.84 | $5.75 | $7.10 | $8.65 | $10.20 | $11.85 |
| Diluted shares | — | 39M | 40M | 40M | 40M | 40M |
| Net debt | — | $-58.88M | $-146.34M | $-248.85M | $-368.18M | $-505.67M |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $171.67 | $202.95 | $239.12 | $279.51 | $323.10 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.1B | $3.1B | $3.1B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 9.0x |
| Diluted shares | 40M | 40M | 40M |
| Net debt | $-505.67M | $-505.67M | $-505.67M |
| Implied P/E † | 14x | 27x | 60x |
| 2030 Price | $167.87 | $323.10 | $711.19 |
| NPV @ 9% | $115.25 | $221.82 | $488.26 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because PEN is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $323.10 base case
PEN catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Boston Scientific acquisition closing (pending regulatory approval, antitrust clearance) — integration will unlock cross-selling and distribution synergies into BSX's global installed base
+ STORM-PE trial positive 90-day outcomes (Apr 2026) — demonstrates superior functional outcomes for thrombectomy in pulmonary embolism; expected to drive guideline adoption and expand addressable market
+ Lightning Flash CAVT system adoption acceleration — positive trial data supports expanded use in intermediate-high risk PE; competitive advantage vs. anticoagulation alone
Key risks
- BSX acquisition completion is NOT yet closed; regulatory/antitrust delays could extend uncertainty through 2026-2027, delaying synergy realization and standalone growth
- Thrombectomy market is competitive (Medtronic, Stryker, Boston Scientific's own portfolio) — pricing pressure and cannibalization risk post-acquisition if BSX integrates competing products
- Clinical adoption of CAVT slower than clinical trial results suggest; hospital/payer adoption of guideline recommendations historically lags by 2-3 years; guideline bodies (AHA/ACC) adoption timeline uncertain
- Penumbra historically grew at 20.2% CAGR (5Y), but recent deceleration: FY2024 +12.86%, FY2025 +17.5%, Q1 2026 YoY +15.6% — growth moderating even pre-acquisition
- Post-acquisition, Penumbra likely to be absorbed into BSX's thrombectomy/vascular division; standalone P&L may not be disclosed, limiting visibility on organic growth trajectory
Methodology · Penumbra Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Penumbra Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 17 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for PEN by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-505.67M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.735) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 9.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
PEN price target FAQ
What is the PEN price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Penumbra Inc 2030 base case is $323.10 per share, with a bull case of $711.19 and bear case of $167.87. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $221.82.
How is the Penumbra Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The PEN 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the PEN price target account for dilution?
Penumbra Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 39M to 40M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on PEN stock?
17 analysts cover PEN with an average 12-month price target of $361.33. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.