PCAR
PACCAR Inc
NASDAQ: PCAR · INDUSTRIALS · FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY
$118.52
+0.80% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$59.41B
P/E ratio
24.02
P/S ratio
2.14x
EPS (TTM)
$4.70
Dividend yield
1.21%
52W range
$88 – $131
Volume
2.8M
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed PCAR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$118.52
Today
Analyst consensus
$126.12
+6.41% · 12M
2030 Base
$99.48
-16.06% future
NPV today
$63.57
@ 10% WACC
22 analysts:
6 Buy10 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
PACCAR management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030. CEO Preston Feight indicated in early 2026 that the company expects truck demand recovery and production acceleration in Q2 2026, with confidence in achieving 35% North American heavy-duty truck market share. The company targets mid-cycle (normalized) profitability margins of 10-11%, implying revenue stability at higher demand cycles but no specific dollar targets disclosed.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
PCAR · PACCAR Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$99.48
NPV today: $63.57
Base case (2030)
$99.48
NPV today: $63.57
Bull case (2030)
$191.64
NPV today: $122.47
WallStSmart.com
PCAR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.4B | $32.2B | $36.8B | $41.2B | $45.0B | $48.5B |
| Revenue growth | -15.5% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% |
| Net margin | — | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| EPS | $4.51 | $6.10 | $7.25 | $8.40 | $9.10 | $9.80 |
| Diluted shares | — | 526M | 526M | 526M | 526M | 526M |
| Net debt | — | $-609.45M | $-1.31B | $-2.09B | $-2.94B | $-3.86B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $62.34 | $72.41 | $82.25 | $91.09 | $99.48 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.5B | $48.5B | $48.5B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 526M | 526M | 526M |
| Net debt | $-3.86B | $-3.86B | $-3.86B |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 10x | 20x |
| 2030 Price | $99.48 | $99.48 | $191.64 |
| NPV @ 10% | $63.57 | $63.57 | $122.47 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because PCAR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $99.48 base case
PCAR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ North American heavy-duty truck market recovery from 2025 demand trough; management signaling production acceleration in H2 2026
+ Increased North American market share to 35% target (from historical 30-32%), supported by premium product positioning and backlog conversion
+ Aftermarket parts and financial services revenue expansion; these segments showed resilience during demand downturns and offer recurring, higher-margin revenue
+ Electric and hydrogen truck transition; Ballard Power partnership and AZETEC hydrogen fuel cell heavy-haul testing indicate emerging revenue streams for low-emission drivetrains
Key risks
- Cyclical heavy-truck demand; freight volumes are macroeconomically sensitive; 2025 saw -15.5% revenue decline and Q1 2026 further declined -9.8% YoY
- North American trucking oversupply and rate pressure could limit demand recovery velocity below management's 35% market share target
- Tariff and trade policy uncertainty; PACCAR removed tariff surcharges in early 2026 but future policy shifts could impact margins and input costs
- Electric truck adoption slower than projected; competition from Tesla Cybertruck and Volvo/Scania EV lineups could pressure PACCAR's EV transition roadmap
- Geopolitical risk; European operations exposed to Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions; Asia operations subject to China trade volatility
Methodology · PACCAR Inc 2030 stock forecast model
PACCAR Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 22 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for PCAR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-3.86B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.03) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
PCAR price target FAQ
What is the PCAR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's PACCAR Inc 2030 base case is $99.48 per share, with a bull case of $191.64 and bear case of $99.48. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $63.57.
How is the PACCAR Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The PCAR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the PCAR price target account for dilution?
PACCAR Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 526M to 526M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on PCAR stock?
22 analysts cover PCAR with an average 12-month price target of $126.12. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.