ORLY
O’Reilly Automotive Inc
NASDAQ: ORLY · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · AUTO PARTS
$91.02
+1.02% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$71.46B
P/E ratio
28.09
P/S ratio
3.93x
EPS (TTM)
$3.07
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$85 – $109
Volume
5.7M
O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ORLY price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$91.02
Today
Analyst consensus
$111.59
+22.60% · 12M
2030 Base
—
— future
NPV today
—
@ — WACC
17 analysts:
9 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
O'Reilly Automotive plans to open up to 235 new stores in 2026, signaling aggressive domestic and international expansion. Management provided FY2026 EPS guidance of $3.10-$3.20 (vs. consensus ~$3.29). No specific revenue dollar targets disclosed, but store expansion and professional segment growth are key drivers.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ORLY · O’Reilly Automotive Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Base case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Bull case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
WallStSmart.com
ORLY financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.8B | $19.3B | $20.5B | $21.9B | $23.3B | $24.8B |
| Revenue growth | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Net margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $2.96 | $3.29 | $3.64 | $4.01 | $4.42 | $4.87 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net debt | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $274.26 | $292.54 | $310.83 | $329.11 | $356.54 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.8B | $24.8B | $24.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 4.0x |
| Diluted shares | 0M | 0M | 0M |
| Net debt | — | — | — |
| Implied P/E † | — | — | — |
| 2030 Price | $— | $— | $— |
| NPV @ — | $— | $— | $— |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ORLY is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $— base case
ORLY catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Up to 235 new store openings in 2026 expanding domestic footprint and entering international markets
+ Strong professional/do-it-for-me segment growth offsetting DIY softness
+ Aging vehicle fleet (avg. age 12+ years) driving sustained aftermarket parts demand
+ E-commerce expansion and omnichannel integration improving customer reach
Key risks
- Consumer spending weakness and economic slowdown reducing discretionary automotive spending
- Rising labor and operating costs pressuring margins despite revenue growth
- Electric vehicle adoption reducing demand for traditional aftermarket parts long-term
- Competitive intensity from AutoZone, Genuine Parts, and Amazon in auto parts retail
Methodology · O’Reilly Automotive Inc 2030 stock forecast model
O’Reilly Automotive Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 17 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-100% cumulative for ORLY by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory (— by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using — WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 4.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.
ORLY price target FAQ
How is the O’Reilly Automotive Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ORLY 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
What is the analyst consensus on ORLY stock?
17 analysts cover ORLY with an average 12-month price target of $111.59. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.