ORA
Ormat Technologies Inc
NYSE: ORA · UTILITIES · UTILITIES - RENEWABLE
$138.16
+1.28% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$8.49B
P/E ratio
66.74
P/S ratio
7.30x
EPS (TTM)
$2.07
Dividend yield
0.35%
52W range
$79 – $146
Volume
0.9M
Ormat Technologies Inc (ORA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ORA price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$138.16
Today
Analyst consensus
$133.18
-3.60% · 12M
2030 Base
$30.37
-78.02% future
NPV today
$20.50
@ 9% WACC
12 analysts:
8 Buy4 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Ormat reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $1,110M–$1,160M (midpoint $1,135M, +14.7% YoY from $989.5M in 2025), with adjusted EBITDA of $615M–$645M. Management has not issued multi-year guidance beyond 2026, but Q1 2026 delivered record $403.9M revenue (+75.8% YoY), signaling accelerating momentum from geothermal power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Google/NV Energy (150MW), Switch (13MW), and hybrid energy storage projects (Shirk 80MW/320MWh). The company is actively expanding Indonesian geothermal (Telaga Ranu concession) and has raised $1.0B in convertible debt to fund growth capex.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ORA · Ormat Technologies Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$-7.01
NPV today: $-7.01
Base case (2030)
$30.37
NPV today: $20.50
Bull case (2030)
$179.87
NPV today: $121.41
WallStSmart.com
ORA financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.3B |
| Revenue growth | 12.5% | 15.2% | 21.4% | 21.6% | 19.6% | 15.1% |
| Net margin | — | 13.4% | 13.9% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 15.2% |
| EPS | — | $2.48 | $3.12 | $3.95 | $4.82 | $5.68 |
| Diluted shares | — | 62M | 62M | 62M | 62M | 62M |
| Net debt | — | $3.04B | $3.42B | $3.88B | $4.44B | $5.08B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $6.17 | $11.90 | $18.95 | $25.95 | $30.37 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.3B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 62M | 62M | 62M |
| Net debt | $5.08B | $5.08B | $5.08B |
| Implied P/E † | -1x | 5x | 32x |
| 2030 Price | $-7.01 | $30.37 | $179.87 |
| NPV @ 9% | $-7.01 | $20.50 | $121.41 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ORA is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $30.37 base case
ORA catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Execution of Google/NV Energy 150MW geothermal PPA (multi-year revenue ramp 2026–2029)
+ Telaga Ranu geothermal project development in Indonesia (material capacity addition 2027–2029)
+ Energy storage market expansion (Shirk 80MW operational; hybrid solar+storage portfolio scaling)
+ Data center power demand acceleration driving long-term PPA signings (Switch, Google, hyperscaler capex $500B+ through 2028)
+ Geothermal exploration and drilling acceleration supporting next-generation project pipeline
+ Potential M&A or partnership to acquire geothermal/storage assets or deploy Sage Geosystems tech
Key risks
- Permitting and regulatory delays on Indonesia Telaga Ranu and U.S. geothermal projects could push revenue recognition to 2028+
- Commodity power prices and natural gas competition could pressure PPA pricing and margins in 2027–2028
- Capital intensity: $1.0B convertible raise signals heavy capex; execution risk if ROI expectations not met
- Insider selling (CFO sold 89% of stake in May 2026) raises valuation concerns despite strong fundamentals
- High P/E (59.7x) and high P/S (6.96x) leave limited margin for error; any guidance miss could trigger 15–20% drawdown
- Geothermal resource risk: project delays or lower-than-expected resource quality could compress 2028–2030 EBITDA margins
Methodology · Ormat Technologies Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Ormat Technologies Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for ORA by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($5.08B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.799) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ORA price target FAQ
What is the ORA price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Ormat Technologies Inc 2030 base case is $30.37 per share, with a bull case of $179.87 and bear case of $-7.01. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $20.50.
How is the Ormat Technologies Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ORA 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ORA price target account for dilution?
Ormat Technologies Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 61M to 62M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on ORA stock?
12 analysts cover ORA with an average 12-month price target of $133.18. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.