ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc
NYSE: ONTO · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS
$287.52
-7.83% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$16.11B
P/E ratio
151.35
P/S ratio
15.63x
EPS (TTM)
$2.14
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$89 – $327
Volume
1.0M
Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ONTO price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$287.52
Today
Analyst consensus
$311.00
+8.17% · 12M
2030 Base
$404.70
+40.76% future
NPV today
$223.01
@ 14% WACC
10 analysts:
8 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030 in available public guidance. Q1 2026 results show strong momentum with 9.51% sequential quarterly revenue growth and guidance implying full-year 2026 revenue of ~$1.36B (35% YoY growth). The company is positioned as a leading supplier of advanced process control and packaging inspection systems for AI/hyperscaler semiconductor manufacturing, benefiting from customer capex commitments (Meta $60B, Microsoft $80B+ in AI infrastructure through 2028).
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ONTO · Onto Innovation Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$224.01
NPV today: $123.44
Base case (2030)
$404.70
NPV today: $223.01
Bull case (2030)
$766.07
NPV today: $422.14
WallStSmart.com
ONTO financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.5B | $3.0B |
| Revenue growth | 1.8% | 35.0% | 25.0% | 23.0% | 21.5% | 18.9% |
| Net margin | — | 26.5% | 28.9% | 30.0% | 30.1% | 30.1% |
| EPS | $4.94 | $7.22 | $9.85 | $12.54 | $15.24 | $18.12 |
| Diluted shares | — | 50M | 50M | 50M | 50M | 50M |
| Net debt | — | $-834.30M | $-1.08B | $-1.38B | $-1.74B | $-2.17B |
| P/S multiple | — | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $180.45 | $225.81 | $278.10 | $338.98 | $404.70 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.0B | $3.0B | $3.0B |
| P/S multiple | 3.0x | 6.0x | 12.0x |
| Diluted shares | 50M | 50M | 50M |
| Net debt | $-2.17B | $-2.17B | $-2.17B |
| Implied P/E † | 12x | 22x | 42x |
| 2030 Price | $224.01 | $404.70 | $766.07 |
| NPV @ 14% | $123.44 | $223.01 | $422.14 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ONTO is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $404.70 base case
ONTO catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Hyperscaler AI capex acceleration (Meta, Microsoft, Google): $200B+ annual spend through 2028 driving semiconductor equipment demand
+ Dragonfly G5 system qualification for 2.5D AI packaging applications — high-margin inspection revenue stream
+ Advanced packaging nodes (chiplet, 2.5D, 3D stacking) require ONTO's inspection systems — TAM expansion beyond traditional lithography
+ Backlog conversion and design wins with TSMC, Samsung on next-gen packaging nodes (2026-2028 ramp)
Key risks
- Cyclicality in semiconductor capex: downturn in 2027-2028 if AI infrastructure spending moderates (historical headwind)
- Concentration risk: hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Google) represent material revenue; changes in their capex plans create volatility
- Competition from Lam Research, ASML, KLA on inspection/metrology; pricing pressure on mature inspection systems
- Geopolitical/export controls on semiconductor equipment to China could reduce TAM by 15-25% if restrictions tighten
Methodology · Onto Innovation Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Onto Innovation Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 10 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for ONTO by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-2.17B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.696) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 3.0x / base 6.0x / bull 12.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ONTO price target FAQ
What is the ONTO price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Onto Innovation Inc 2030 base case is $404.70 per share, with a bull case of $766.07 and bear case of $224.01. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $223.01.
How is the Onto Innovation Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ONTO 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ONTO price target account for dilution?
Onto Innovation Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 50M to 50M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on ONTO stock?
10 analysts cover ONTO with an average 12-month price target of $311.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.