ON
ON Semiconductor Corporation
NASDAQ: ON · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$116.79
+0.72% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$45.41B
P/E ratio
86.51
P/S ratio
7.49x
EPS (TTM)
$1.35
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$45 – $135
Volume
11.2M
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ON price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$116.79
Today
Analyst consensus
$89.19
-23.63% · 12M
2030 Base
$157.99
+35.28% future
NPV today
$82.29
@ 15% WACC
31 analysts:
15 Buy15 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
ON Semiconductor has not issued specific multi-year revenue targets through 2030 in public guidance. Most recent Q1 2026 guidance indicates strong near-term momentum driven by AI data-center demand and automotive recovery, with management emphasizing margin expansion and disciplined capital allocation. The company is focused on its power and sensing semiconductor strategy for EVs, AI infrastructure, and industrial markets.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ON · ON Semiconductor Corporation · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$83.64
NPV today: $43.56
Base case (2030)
$157.99
NPV today: $82.29
Bull case (2030)
$269.52
NPV today: $140.38
WallStSmart.com
ON financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.0B | $6.6B | $8.4B | $10.5B | $12.5B | $14.8B |
| Revenue growth | -15.3% | 10.7% | 26.2% | 25.5% | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| Net margin | — | 18.8% | 22.8% | 24.4% | 25.3% | 25.8% |
| EPS | $2.16 | $3.17 | $4.85 | $6.50 | $8.00 | $9.60 |
| Diluted shares | — | 393M | 394M | 395M | 396M | 397M |
| Net debt | — | $2.50B | $1.38B | $-31.99M | $-1.71B | $-3.69B |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $61.21 | $81.53 | $106.44 | $130.65 | $157.99 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.8B | $14.8B | $14.8B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 397M | 397M | 397M |
| Net debt | $-3.69B | $-3.69B | $-3.69B |
| Implied P/E † | 9x | 17x | 28x |
| 2030 Price | $83.64 | $157.99 | $269.52 |
| NPV @ 15% | $43.56 | $82.29 | $140.38 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ON is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $157.99 base case
ON catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AI data-center capex acceleration (hyperscaler spending $300B+ annually through 2028)
+ EV semiconductor content growth (automotive TAM expanding 15-20% CAGR through 2030)
+ Margin expansion from AI/power mix shift (gross margin improvement from 37% to 40%+ by 2028)
+ Industrial automation recovery and IoT proliferation
+ $1.3B convertible offering for strategic M&A or capacity expansion
Key risks
- AI capex spending deceleration or reallocation to in-house chip design (hyperscaler risk)
- EV demand slowdown or supply chain normalization reducing premium pricing
- Cyclical downturn in industrial/automotive demand
- Intense competition from NVIDIA, AMD, NXP, and STMicroelectronics
- Geopolitical tensions affecting China sales (currently ~25% of revenue)
- High valuation (78.8x P/E) leaves limited upside if growth misses
Methodology · ON Semiconductor Corporation 2030 stock forecast model
ON Semiconductor Corporation 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 31 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for ON by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-3.69B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 15% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.938) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ON price target FAQ
What is the ON price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's ON Semiconductor Corporation 2030 base case is $157.99 per share, with a bull case of $269.52 and bear case of $83.64. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 15% WACC is $82.29.
How is the ON Semiconductor Corporation 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ON 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ON price target account for dilution?
ON Semiconductor Corporation is projected to grow diluted share count from 389M to 397M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on ON stock?
31 analysts cover ON with an average 12-month price target of $89.19. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.