OMAB
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV
NASDAQ: OMAB · INDUSTRIALS · AIRPORTS & AIR SERVICES
$108.02
-2.76% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$4.91B
P/E ratio
16.18
P/S ratio
0.30x
EPS (TTM)
$6.29
Dividend yield
5.67%
52W range
$86 – $131
Volume
0.1M
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV (OMAB) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed OMAB price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$108.02
Today
Analyst consensus
$134.00
+24.05% · 12M
2030 Base
$2,023.66
+1773.41% future
NPV today
$1,494.25
@ 7% WACC
5 analysts:
2 Buy2 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030. However, Q1 2026 guidance indicates a 6.9% tariff increase effective April 2026 to drive aeronautical revenue growth, and continued focus on Monterrey Airport expansion as a growth driver. The company targets sustained domestic traffic growth despite international headwinds, with capital investment of Ps.605M in Q1 2026 toward infrastructure upgrades.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
OMAB · Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$622.96
NPV today: $459.99
Base case (2030)
$2,023.66
NPV today: $1,494.25
Bull case (2030)
$4,124.71
NPV today: $3,045.65
WallStSmart.com
OMAB financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.0B | $17.6B | $20.2B | $23.4B | $26.5B | $29.4B |
| Revenue growth | 5.9% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 11.0% |
| Net margin | — | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| EPS | $5.87 | $18.50 | $22.10 | $25.80 | $29.20 | $32.40 |
| Diluted shares | — | 42M | 42M | 42M | 42M | 42M |
| Net debt | — | $11.92B | $10.16B | $8.13B | $5.82B | $3.25B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $975.75 | $1,198.01 | $1,476.90 | $1,753.67 | $2,023.66 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.4B | $29.4B | $29.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 42M | 42M | 42M |
| Net debt | $3.25B | $3.25B | $3.25B |
| Implied P/E † | 19x | 63x | 127x |
| 2030 Price | $622.96 | $2,023.66 | $4,124.71 |
| NPV @ 7% | $459.99 | $1,494.25 | $3,045.65 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because OMAB is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $2,023.66 base case
OMAB catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Monterrey Airport expansion completion driving incremental capacity and domestic traffic growth (2027-2028)
+ Continued tariff increases (6.9% in April 2026, with potential additional increases in 2027-2028) boosting aeronautical revenue margins
+ Recovery of international traffic following Q1 2026 weakness (-9.8% YoY in April 2026) as global aviation normalizes post-2026
+ Non-aeronautical revenue expansion (retail, parking, services) at 13 airports across central/northern Mexico
+ Potential market share gains as regional Mexican airports drive connectivity and new route launches (7 new routes in March 2026)
Key risks
- International traffic volatility: April 2026 showed -9.8% YoY decline in international passengers, indicating exposure to global economic cycles and currency fluctuations (Mexican peso weakness reduces U.S. travel incentives)
- Domestic traffic saturation: Q1 2026 domestic growth (+4.7% overall) is decelerating from post-COVID recovery levels; sustained mid-single-digit growth requires sustained Mexican economic expansion (GDP growth ~2.5-3.5% assumption)
- Tariff regulatory risk: While 6.9% tariff increase approved in April 2026, future increases face political/regulatory constraints; inability to raise tariffs would cap aeronautical revenue growth at passenger growth rates (~3-5%)
- Currency headwinds: ~75% of revenues in Mexican pesos; USD strength reduces international competitiveness and investor returns when converted to dollars
- Capital intensity: Monterrey expansion and infrastructure investments (Ps.605M+ quarterly) require continued capex, potentially constraining free cash flow growth despite strong margins
Methodology · Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV 2030 stock forecast model
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 5 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for OMAB by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($3.25B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 7% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.413) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
OMAB price target FAQ
What is the OMAB price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV 2030 base case is $2,023.66 per share, with a bull case of $4,124.71 and bear case of $622.96. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 7% WACC is $1,494.25.
How is the Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The OMAB 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the OMAB price target account for dilution?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV is projected to grow diluted share count from 42M to 42M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on OMAB stock?
5 analysts cover OMAB with an average 12-month price target of $134.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.