OHI
Omega Healthcare Investors Inc
NYSE: OHI · REAL ESTATE · REIT - HEALTHCARE FACILITIES
$45.77
+1.08% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$14.27B
P/E ratio
22.11
P/S ratio
11.61x
EPS (TTM)
$2.07
Dividend yield
5.92%
52W range
$34 – $49
Volume
2.2M
Omega Healthcare Investors Inc (OHI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed OHI price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$45.77
Today
Analyst consensus
$48.83
+6.69% · 12M
2030 Base
$18.30
-60.02% future
NPV today
$13.00
@ 8% WACC
14 analysts:
6 Buy7 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
Management raised 2026 AFFO guidance to $3.19-$3.25 per share (midpoint $3.22) following strong Q1 2026 results. Management is actively deploying $326M YTD in new investments and completed strategic CommuniCare asset sale for $480M with $0.03 annual AFFO accretion expected from redeployment. Management emphasized sustainable FAD per share growth through portfolio optimization and investment in skilled nursing, senior housing RIDEA, and UK care homes, but provided no explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
OHI · Omega Healthcare Investors Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$2.17
NPV today: $1.54
Base case (2030)
$18.30
NPV today: $13.00
Bull case (2030)
$50.58
NPV today: $35.93
WallStSmart.com
OHI financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B |
| Revenue growth | 14.0% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% |
| Net margin | — | 47.0% | 45.4% | 44.5% | 43.9% | 43.3% |
| EPS | $2.03 | $2.08 | $2.15 | $2.22 | $2.28 | $2.33 |
| Diluted shares | — | 298M | 299M | 300M | 300M | 301M |
| Net debt | — | $4.22B | $4.22B | $4.21B | $4.21B | $4.20B |
| P/S multiple | — | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $12.39 | $14.28 | $15.88 | $17.16 | $18.30 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B |
| P/S multiple | 3.0x | 6.0x | 12.0x |
| Diluted shares | 301M | 301M | 301M |
| Net debt | $4.20B | $4.20B | $4.20B |
| Implied P/E † | 1x | 8x | 22x |
| 2030 Price | $2.17 | $18.30 | $50.58 |
| NPV @ 8% | $1.54 | $13.00 | $35.93 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because OHI is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $18.30 base case
OHI catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Portfolio optimization and CommuniCare divestiture ($480M) redeployed into higher-yield assets
+ Demographic tailwind: aging U.S. population driving long-term demand for skilled nursing and senior housing
+ RIDEA platform expansion with regional operators targeting off-market senior living deals
+ Active investment pipeline ($326M YTD) positioning for accretive acquisitions and organic growth
+ Dividend stability maintained at $0.67/quarter (5.8% yield) supported by improving AFFO
Key risks
- Tenant credit risk: ongoing Genesis bankruptcy creates operational and financial uncertainty for OHI's portfolio
- Reimbursement policy risk: Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement rate pressures could compress operator margins and reduce lease economics
- Maplewood and Genesis operator stress: exposure to financially distressed operators requires close monitoring and potential capital allocation
- High payout ratio: 138-148% dividend payout ratio indicates limited financial flexibility if FFO/FAD growth stalls
- Interest rate risk: rising rates increase debt service costs and reduce cap rate expansion opportunities for property acquisitions
- Operator concentration: reliance on a small number of large operators creates portfolio concentration risk
Methodology · Omega Healthcare Investors Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Omega Healthcare Investors Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 14 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for OHI by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($4.20B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.587) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 3.0x / base 6.0x / bull 12.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
OHI price target FAQ
What is the OHI price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Omega Healthcare Investors Inc 2030 base case is $18.30 per share, with a bull case of $50.58 and bear case of $2.17. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $13.00.
How is the Omega Healthcare Investors Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The OHI 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the OHI price target account for dilution?
Omega Healthcare Investors Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 298M to 301M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on OHI stock?
14 analysts cover OHI with an average 12-month price target of $48.83. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.