NVMI
Nova Ltd
NASDAQ: NVMI · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS
$504.54
-8.58% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$16.16B
P/E ratio
63.81
P/S ratio
18.13x
EPS (TTM)
$7.96
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$218 – $565
Volume
0.4M
Nova Ltd (NVMI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed NVMI price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$504.54
Today
Analyst consensus
$568.00
+12.58% · 12M
2030 Base
$627.34
+24.34% future
NPV today
$337.41
@ 14% WACC
11 analysts:
9 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Gaby Waisman reaffirmed target of $1,000M ($1.0B) in annual revenue by 2027, implying 13.6% CAGR from 2025 base of $880.58M. Q1 2026 record results ($235.3M revenue, +10.3% YoY) and Q2 guidance of $245-255M indicate accelerating momentum driven by DRAM, advanced packaging, and AI-related semiconductor capex from hyperscalers (Meta $60B+, Microsoft $80B+ AI capex plans through 2028).
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
NVMI · Nova Ltd · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$364.99
NPV today: $196.31
Base case (2030)
$627.34
NPV today: $337.41
Bull case (2030)
$1,283.21
NPV today: $690.17
WallStSmart.com
NVMI financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.9B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.1B |
| Revenue growth | 31.0% | 21.0% | 20.2% | 20.7% | 17.5% | 15.4% |
| Net margin | — | 31.5% | 32.1% | 32.6% | 32.4% | 32.2% |
| EPS | $8.68 | $10.54 | $12.90 | $15.80 | $18.45 | $21.15 |
| Diluted shares | — | 32M | 32M | 32M | 32M | 32M |
| Net debt | — | $-338.03M | $-498.73M | $-692.70M | $-920.56M | $-1.18B |
| P/S multiple | — | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $311.90 | $377.39 | $457.92 | $540.75 | $627.34 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.1B | $2.1B | $2.1B |
| P/S multiple | 5.0x | 9.0x | 19.0x |
| Diluted shares | 32M | 32M | 32M |
| Net debt | $-1.18B | $-1.18B | $-1.18B |
| Implied P/E † | 17x | 30x | 61x |
| 2030 Price | $364.99 | $627.34 | $1,283.21 |
| NPV @ 14% | $196.31 | $337.41 | $690.17 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because NVMI is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $627.34 base case
NVMI catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Achievement of $1.0B annual revenue target in 2027 (reaffirmed by management)
+ Sustained hyperscaler capex cycle through 2028 (Meta, Microsoft, Google AI infrastructure buildout)
+ Market share gains in advanced metrology/process control for sub-3nm node manufacturing
+ Adoption of Metrion platform by leading global manufacturers (announced Jan 2026)
+ Expansion into new markets (packaging, chiplet inspection) beyond traditional DRAM/logic
Key risks
- Concentration risk: major revenue dependent on 2-3 hyperscaler/memory customers
- Semiconductor capex cyclicality: if customers reduce capex post-2027, revenue growth compresses
- Valuation compression: trading at 38-46x forward P/E; margin of safety limited if growth disappoints
- Geopolitical/export restrictions could impact sales to China-linked fabs
- Competitive pressure from established players (KLA, ONTO) in process control space
Methodology · Nova Ltd 2030 stock forecast model
Nova Ltd 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for NVMI by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.18B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.795) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 5.0x / base 9.0x / bull 19.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
NVMI price target FAQ
What is the NVMI price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Nova Ltd 2030 base case is $627.34 per share, with a bull case of $1,283.21 and bear case of $364.99. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $337.41.
How is the Nova Ltd 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The NVMI 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the NVMI price target account for dilution?
Nova Ltd is projected to grow diluted share count from 32M to 32M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on NVMI stock?
11 analysts cover NVMI with an average 12-month price target of $568.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.