NFLX
Netflix Inc
NASDAQ: NFLX · COMMUNICATION SERVICES · ENTERTAINMENT
$80.34
-1.14% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$350.89B
P/E ratio
26.88
P/S ratio
7.48x
EPS (TTM)
$3.10
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$75 – $134
Volume
38.5M
Netflix Inc (NFLX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed NFLX price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$80.34
Today
Analyst consensus
$114.82
+42.92% · 12M
2030 Base
$183.23
+128.07% future
NPV today
$104.30
@ 13% WACC
52 analysts:
36 Buy16 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Netflix reaffirmed strong 2026 guidance with 12-14% revenue growth targeting approximately $52-53B in annual revenue. Management lifted free cash flow targets and authorized a $25B share buyback, signaling confidence in sustained profitability and cash generation through 2026-2027. CEO guidance implies operating margins stabilizing around 31-32% with continued ad revenue acceleration.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
NFLX · Netflix Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$66.01
NPV today: $37.58
Base case (2030)
$183.23
NPV today: $104.30
Bull case (2030)
$261.38
NPV today: $148.79
WallStSmart.com
NFLX financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $45.2B | $52.5B | $59.9B | $67.6B | $75.2B | $82.7B |
| Revenue growth | 15.9% | 16.1% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 10.0% |
| Net margin | — | 29.4% | 30.0% | 30.1% | 30.2% | 30.1% |
| EPS | $2.53 | $3.66 | $4.25 | $4.82 | $5.38 | $5.88 |
| Diluted shares | — | 4215M | 4219M | 4223M | 4228M | 4232M |
| Net debt | — | $-298.18M | $-6.80B | $-14.14B | $-22.31B | $-31.29B |
| P/S multiple | — | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $112.08 | $129.28 | $147.38 | $165.39 | $183.23 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $82.7B | $82.7B | $82.7B |
| P/S multiple | 3.0x | 9.0x | 13.0x |
| Diluted shares | 4232M | 4232M | 4232M |
| Net debt | $-31.29B | $-31.29B | $-31.29B |
| Implied P/E † | 11x | 31x | 45x |
| 2030 Price | $66.01 | $183.23 | $261.38 |
| NPV @ 13% | $37.58 | $104.30 | $148.79 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because NFLX is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $183.23 base case
NFLX catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Ad-supported tier revenue doubling to ~$3B in 2026 as advertiser adoption accelerates
+ NFL live sports expansion (secured additional games beyond initial commitment) driving premium audience and ad rates
+ International market maturation and price optimization in LATAM, EMEA, and APAC
+ Gaming and ancillary revenue streams (merchandise, toys, candy licensing) scaling from new partnerships
+ Password-sharing monetization expansion and crackdown driving incremental paid subscriber conversions
+ AI-driven content personalization and advertising targeting improving engagement and ARPU
Key risks
- Subscriber growth deceleration as penetration reaches saturation in developed markets (DTC streaming lifecycle risk)
- Ad market downturn or CPM compression if economic recession reduces advertiser spending intensity
- Content cost inflation and competitive content spending wars (Disney, Amazon, Apple continuing aggressive investment)
- Regulatory headwinds (antitrust, data privacy, content moderation) particularly in EU and US political environment
- Execution risk on ad tech and AI personalization — if ad monetization stalls, margin expansion thesis breaks
- Competitive pressure from bundled offerings (Disney+/Hulu/ESPN, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+) fragmenting viewers and reducing standalone NFLX pricing power
Methodology · Netflix Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Netflix Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 52 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for NFLX by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-31.29B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 13% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.548) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 3.0x / base 9.0x / bull 13.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
NFLX price target FAQ
What is the NFLX price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Netflix Inc 2030 base case is $183.23 per share, with a bull case of $261.38 and bear case of $66.01. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 13% WACC is $104.30.
How is the Netflix Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The NFLX 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the NFLX price target account for dilution?
Netflix Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 4211M to 4232M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on NFLX stock?
52 analysts cover NFLX with an average 12-month price target of $114.82. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.