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NFLX

Netflix Inc

NASDAQ: NFLX · COMMUNICATION SERVICES · ENTERTAINMENT

$93.61
+1.62% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$394.17B
P/E ratio
30.20
P/S ratio
8.41x
EPS (TTM)
$3.10
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$75 – $134
Volume
46.3M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Netflix Inc (NFLX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$93.61
Consensus
$119.23
+27.37%
2030 Target
$74.26
-20.67%
DCF
$56.31
-66.24% MoS
34 analysts:
12 Buy7 Hold1 Sell

Management guidance

Netflix management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets beyond 2026. Q1 2026 earnings showed $12.25B quarterly revenue (+16.2% YoY), implying ~$49B annualized. Management reiterated FY2026 guidance of $52.41B revenue but provided softer FY2027 guidance at $58.56B (+11.74%), signaling deceleration from historical 15-16% growth rates. Co-founder Reed Hastings' board exit suggests transition to mature monetization phase focused on ads and sports rather than aggressive subscriber expansion.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$129.95
$79.6B Rev × 6.7x P/S
Base case (2030)
$74.26
$79.6B Rev × 4.2x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$46.41
$79.6B Rev × 2.5x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$33.7B$39.0B$45.2B$52.4B$58.6B$65.1B$72.1B$79.6B
Revenue growth—15.6%15.9%16.0%11.7%11.2%10.8%10.4%
EPS$1.20$1.98$2.53$3.24$3.94$4.65$5.45$6.35
P/S ratio———4.2x4.2x4.2x4.2x4.2x
Implied price———$55.69$55.69$64.97$74.26$74.26

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ $25B new share buyback authorization signals capital return commitment and potential stock support
+ Expansion into live sports (NFL, WWE, golf) and vertical video (TikTok/Reels competitor) to unlock new revenue streams
+ Ad-tier monetization maturation and price increases across all tiers driving ARPU expansion
+ International market penetration deepening, particularly in emerging markets with lower penetration
+ AI-driven content creation and personalization reducing content costs while improving retention
Key risks
- Guidance miss in Q1 2026 signals slowing growth in core markets; management projecting only 11.74% growth FY2027 vs. historical 15%+ rates
- Market saturation in developed regions (US, Western Europe) limiting subscriber growth; TAM expansion dependent on price increases vs. unit growth
- Password-sharing crackdown complete; revenue growth increasingly dependent on monetization (ads, price hikes) rather than subscriber expansion
- Competitive intensity from Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, YouTube intensifying; margin pressure from sports rights escalation
- Macro slowdown and consumer spending weakness impacting ad spend and price elasticity; geopolitical uncertainty (Italy refund ruling, regulatory headwinds)

Methodology

Netflix Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 34 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 24, 2026.