NBIS
Nebius Group N.V.
NASDAQ: NBIS · COMMUNICATION SERVICES · INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION
$232.36
+4.55% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$66.16B
P/E ratio
101.00
P/S ratio
75.36x
EPS (TTM)
$2.58
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$41 – $279
Volume
17.2M
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed NBIS price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$232.36
Today
Analyst consensus
$230.77
-0.68% · 12M
2030 Base
$1,743.44
+650.32% future
NPV today
$1,064.30
@ 11% WACC
18 analysts:
10 Buy5 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Arkady Volozh has not publicly disclosed specific revenue targets through 2030. However, Q1 2026 results showed $399M revenue (684% YoY growth), with management highlighting 'unprecedented demand' for AI infrastructure and announcing plans to secure 1.2 GW of power capacity across multiple geographies (Pennsylvania, Finland, Missouri). Management targets $1.92B annualized run rate (ARR) based on Q1 bookings, implying 2026 full-year revenue guidance in the $3.5B-$4.1B range per analyst consensus.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
NBIS · Nebius Group N.V. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$1,237.82
NPV today: $755.64
Base case (2030)
$1,743.44
NPV today: $1,064.30
Bull case (2030)
$3,892.33
NPV today: $2,376.11
WallStSmart.com
NBIS financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | $4.0B | $9.0B | $15.0B | $22.0B | $28.0B |
| Revenue growth | 350.9% | 598.1% | 194.6% | 88.1% | 40.0% | 22.6% |
| Net margin | — | -9.9% | -1.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% |
| EPS | $-1.85 | $-1.80 | $-0.50 | $1.20 | $3.10 | $4.90 |
| Diluted shares | — | 221M | 221M | 221M | 221M | 222M |
| Net debt | — | $10.10M | $-2.69B | $-7.19B | $-13.79B | $-22.19B |
| P/S multiple | — | 17.0x | 16.0x | 15.0x | 14.0x | 13.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $308.17 | $664.21 | $1,050.31 | $1,454.16 | $1,743.44 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.0B | $28.0B | $28.0B |
| P/S multiple | 9.0x | 13.0x | 30.0x |
| Diluted shares | 222M | 222M | 222M |
| Net debt | $-22.19B | $-22.19B | $-22.19B |
| Implied P/E † | 253x | 356x | 794x |
| 2030 Price | $1,237.82 | $1,743.44 | $3,892.33 |
| NPV @ 11% | $755.64 | $1,064.30 | $2,376.11 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because NBIS is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $1,743.44 base case
NBIS catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Bloom Energy partnership: 328 MW onsite fuel-cell deployment for AI infrastructure expansion (removes critical power bottleneck, enables 2026-2027 capex acceleration)
+ Eigen AI acquisition ($643M, closing imminent): integrates inference optimization layer into Nebius Token Factory, accelerates enterprise AI workload monetization
+ Gigawatt-scale AI factory buildout: Pennsylvania (1.2 GW), Finland (310 MW), Missouri announced — capacity constrained 75% sold before completion, validates TAM and pricing power
+ Meta/Microsoft multi-billion dollar contracts: public commitments to purchase AI compute through 2028 provide near-certain revenue floor for 2026-2028
+ ARR inflection: $1.92B ARR announced Q1 2026 = 363% YoY increase; subscription/recurring model stabilizes margins and improves revenue visibility vs. project-based services
Key risks
- Extreme valuation (P/S 63x, P/E 80x): stock price assumes $1T+ 2030 revenue; any miss on 2026-2027 growth cadence triggers 30-50% correction
- Capex intensity and debt escalation: Q1 2026 capex $4.07B, LT debt $9.48B (5100% YoY increase); if utilization lags deployment, ROIC collapses and growth decelerates sharply
- Competitive pressure from hyperscalers: Google/Blackstone AI cloud JV, CoreWeave expansion, AWS/Azure AI offerings emerging — NBIS must maintain <15% price premium on commodity compute or loses TAM share
- Supply chain: GPU/chip availability constraints from Nvidia dependency; if CUDA ecosystem fractures or AMD gains share, NBIS's inference platform loses competitive moat
- Insider selling: Elena Bunina (director) sold $50M+ in shares Mar-May 2026; suggests management confidence may be moderating despite bullish guidance
Methodology · Nebius Group N.V. 2030 stock forecast model
Nebius Group N.V. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 18 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for NBIS by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-22.19B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.238) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 9.0x / base 13.0x / bull 30.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 22, 2026.
NBIS price target FAQ
What is the NBIS price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Nebius Group N.V. 2030 base case is $1,743.44 per share, with a bull case of $3,892.33 and bear case of $1,237.82. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $1,064.30.
How is the Nebius Group N.V. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The NBIS 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the NBIS price target account for dilution?
Nebius Group N.V. is projected to grow diluted share count from 220M to 222M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on NBIS stock?
18 analysts cover NBIS with an average 12-month price target of $230.77. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.