MXL
MaxLinear Inc
NASDAQ: MXL · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$84.46
+4.16% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$8.32B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
16.35x
EPS (TTM)
$-1.52
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$12 – $106
Volume
5.0M
MaxLinear Inc (MXL) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MXL price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$84.46
Today
Analyst consensus
$48.31
-42.80% · 12M
2030 Base
$131.04
+55.15% future
NPV today
$44.66
@ 26% WACC
12 analysts:
5 Buy4 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
MaxLinear has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030. However, Q1 2026 guidance implied revenue of ~$660-670M for FY2026 (41-42% YoY growth). Management is heavily focused on AI data center optical infrastructure (136% YoY growth in Q1 2026) and 5G backhaul (Trinity platform launch). No CEO has articulated a specific revenue or CAGR target for 2028-2030, so we rely on backlog visibility and TAM expansion.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MXL · MaxLinear Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$66.14
NPV today: $22.54
Base case (2030)
$131.04
NPV today: $44.66
Bull case (2030)
$244.62
NPV today: $83.37
WallStSmart.com
MXL financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | $0.7B | $0.9B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Revenue growth | 29.7% | 41.9% | 43.2% | 31.1% | 24.9% | 19.3% |
| Net margin | — | 17.5% | 22.0% | 26.9% | 29.2% | 32.1% |
| EPS | $0.30 | $1.36 | $2.18 | $3.24 | $4.12 | $5.21 |
| Diluted shares | — | 90M | 91M | 91M | 92M | 92M |
| Net debt | — | $104.08M | $63.12M | $13.07M | $-46.08M | $-114.34M |
| P/S multiple | — | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $60.89 | $78.52 | $96.10 | $113.56 | $131.04 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 8.0x | 15.0x |
| Diluted shares | 92M | 92M | 92M |
| Net debt | $-114.34M | $-114.34M | $-114.34M |
| Implied P/E † | 13x | 25x | 47x |
| 2030 Price | $66.14 | $131.04 | $244.62 |
| NPV @ 26% | $22.54 | $44.66 | $83.37 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MXL is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $131.04 base case
MXL catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AI data center optical interconnect demand (PAM4 DSPs, transimpedance amplifiers) driving 130%+ growth in infrastructure segment
+ 5G wireless backhaul expansion via Trinity platform and Sierra SoC; DOCSIS 4.0 Puma 8 VFI certification enabling home network penetration
+ Hyperscaler capex continuing through 2027-2028 (Microsoft, Meta, Google spending $80B+/year on AI infrastructure)
+ New product launches (Washington 200G TIA, Panther V for AI inference, Coronado/Laguna USB UART) accelerating design wins
+ Market consolidation in optical interconnect; MaxLinear is a category leader with proprietary silicon-germanium and PAM4 DSP IP
Key risks
- Stock extremely overvalued at 17.6x P/S and 73.5x forward P/E; any deceleration or miss triggers 50%+ correction (analyst targets imply -50% downside)
- Heavy dependence on hyperscaler AI capex; if Meta/Microsoft/Google reduce spending post-2027, optical infrastructure TAM collapses
- Negative profitability (TTM net margin -26%, operating margin -16%) despite 40%+ revenue growth; path to sustained 20%+ net margins unclear
- Insider selling (Corporate Controller sold 72% of holdings May 2026 at $97/share) suggests limited conviction above current levels
- Competition from Broadcom, Marvell, and specialized optical IP vendors; MaxLinear lacks the full-stack ecosystem of larger players
- Supply chain risk: silicon-germanium fab capacity constraints could limit scaling if demand accelerates beyond guidance
Methodology · MaxLinear Inc 2030 stock forecast model
MaxLinear Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for MXL by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-114.34M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 26% WACC (CAPM: beta 3.964) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 8.0x / bull 15.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
MXL price target FAQ
What is the MXL price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's MaxLinear Inc 2030 base case is $131.04 per share, with a bull case of $244.62 and bear case of $66.14. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 26% WACC is $44.66.
How is the MaxLinear Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MXL 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MXL price target account for dilution?
MaxLinear Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 90M to 92M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on MXL stock?
12 analysts cover MXL with an average 12-month price target of $48.31. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.