MUR
Murphy Oil Corporation
NYSE: MUR · ENERGY · OIL & GAS E&P
$37.62
-3.25% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$5.57B
P/E ratio
65.83
P/S ratio
2.03x
EPS (TTM)
$0.59
Dividend yield
3.44%
52W range
$21 – $43
Volume
1.9M
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MUR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$37.62
Today
Analyst consensus
$35.73
-5.02% · 12M
2030 Base
$53.40
+41.95% future
NPV today
$38.26
@ 8% WACC
15 analysts:
2 Buy12 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Eric Hambly stated Murphy Oil is focused on disciplined capital allocation and long-cycle project value creation, not reacting to current oil price volatility. Company reaffirmed 2026 capex guidance and production guidance of 164,000-172,000 BOE/d for Q1 2026, with key catalysts including Chinook #8 (Gulf) first oil in late 2026 and Lac Da Vang (Vietnam) first oil by end of 2026. No specific multi-year revenue targets disclosed, but guidance implies production growth trajectory through 2026-2027 tied to project ramp.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MUR · Murphy Oil Corporation · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$53.40
NPV today: $38.26
Base case (2030)
$53.40
NPV today: $38.26
Bull case (2030)
$85.49
NPV today: $61.25
WallStSmart.com
MUR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.7B | $3.3B | $3.6B | $4.0B | $4.4B | $4.8B |
| Revenue growth | -10.9% | 20.8% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% |
| Net margin | — | 16.7% | 16.3% | 16.4% | 16.2% | 16.2% |
| EPS | $1.38 | $3.75 | $4.10 | $4.55 | $4.85 | $5.20 |
| Diluted shares | — | 144M | 146M | 146M | 147M | 148M |
| Net debt | — | $-273.89M | $-897.47M | $-1.59B | $-2.34B | $-3.15B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $24.39 | $31.25 | $38.53 | $45.78 | $53.40 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.8B | $4.8B | $4.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 148M | 148M | 148M |
| Net debt | $-3.15B | $-3.15B | $-3.15B |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 10x | 16x |
| 2030 Price | $53.40 | $53.40 | $85.49 |
| NPV @ 8% | $38.26 | $38.26 | $61.25 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MUR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $53.40 base case
MUR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Chinook #8 well in Gulf of America targeting first oil late 2026 — material production increase
+ Lac Da Vang project in Vietnam (SE Asia's largest discovery in 20 years) targeting first oil by end of 2026
+ Production growth from Eagle Ford Shale and Gulf of America continuing (Q1 2026 beat 174 MBOEPD vs guidance midpoint)
+ Oil price realization upside if Brent crude remains above $70-75/bbl assumption
+ Exploration success in Côte d'Ivoire (Bubale project) and Vietnam (HSV-3X appraisal) derisking future reserves
Key risks
- Oil price collapse below $50-55/bbl would compress realization prices and reduce revenue by 15-25%
- Exploration dry holes (Caracal well in Côte d'Ivoire already failed; Bubale risk remains material)
- Vietnam project execution delays or cost overruns pushing Lac Da Vang first oil beyond 2026
- Geopolitical risk in Côte d'Ivoire and Vietnam affecting operations and investment
- Commodity price hedging decisions reducing upside capture if crude rallies significantly
Methodology · Murphy Oil Corporation 2030 stock forecast model
Murphy Oil Corporation 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 15 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for MUR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-3.15B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.54) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
MUR price target FAQ
What is the MUR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Murphy Oil Corporation 2030 base case is $53.40 per share, with a bull case of $85.49 and bear case of $53.40. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $38.26.
How is the Murphy Oil Corporation 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MUR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MUR price target account for dilution?
Murphy Oil Corporation is projected to grow diluted share count from 143M to 148M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on MUR stock?
15 analysts cover MUR with an average 12-month price target of $35.73. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.