MTG
MGIC Investment Corp
NYSE: MTG · FINANCIAL SERVICES · INSURANCE - SPECIALTY
$26.10
+1.55% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$5.46B
P/E ratio
8.19
P/S ratio
4.53x
EPS (TTM)
$3.15
Dividend yield
2.28%
52W range
$24 – $30
Volume
1.9M
MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MTG price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$26.10
Today
Analyst consensus
$28.25
+8.24% · 12M
2030 Base
$22.29
-14.60% future
NPV today
$15.37
@ 8% WACC
5 analysts:
1 Buy4 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030. Q1 2026 guidance emphasizes disciplined capital allocation, strong credit performance, and new insurance written of $14.4B (up 41% YoY), but no forward revenue CAGR or specific 2030 targets have been disclosed. CEO confidence is reflected in $750M buyback authorization and 7 consecutive years of dividend increases, signaling belief in sustainable earnings power rather than aggressive top-line expansion.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MTG · MGIC Investment Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$15.72
NPV today: $10.84
Base case (2030)
$22.29
NPV today: $15.37
Bull case (2030)
$41.99
NPV today: $28.95
WallStSmart.com
MTG financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.4B |
| Revenue growth | 0.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% |
| Net margin | — | 53.5% | 55.9% | 58.0% | 59.9% | 62.1% |
| EPS | $3.14 | $3.11 | $3.32 | $3.54 | $3.79 | $4.08 |
| Diluted shares | — | 213M | 214M | 214M | 215M | 216M |
| Net debt | — | $-370.50M | $-750.90M | $-1.14B | $-1.55B | $-1.98B |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $13.36 | $15.39 | $17.55 | $19.86 | $22.29 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 216M | 216M | 216M |
| Net debt | $-1.98B | $-1.98B | $-1.98B |
| Implied P/E † | 4x | 6x | 10x |
| 2030 Price | $15.72 | $22.29 | $41.99 |
| NPV @ 8% | $10.84 | $15.37 | $28.95 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MTG is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $22.29 base case
MTG catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Mortgage originations recovery if rates decline or housing affordability improves
+ Expansion of insurance in force (currently showing modest growth) driving premium volume
+ Capital return acceleration through share buybacks ($750M authorized through 2028) reducing share count and lifting EPS
+ Credit normalization stabilizing if housing market remains stable and delinquencies remain contained
Key risks
- Secular decline in mortgage originations and persistency as industry normalizes post-pandemic refinance boom
- Rising credit costs if housing market deteriorates or unemployment spikes
- Premium yield compression from competitive pricing pressure in specialty insurance
- Revenue headwinds from declining insurance in force if refinance activity remains muted
- Regulatory changes to PMIERs capital requirements or mortgage insurance mandate thresholds
Methodology · MGIC Investment Corp 2030 stock forecast model
MGIC Investment Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 5 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for MTG by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.98B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.705) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
MTG price target FAQ
What is the MTG price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's MGIC Investment Corp 2030 base case is $22.29 per share, with a bull case of $41.99 and bear case of $15.72. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $15.37.
How is the MGIC Investment Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MTG 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MTG price target account for dilution?
MGIC Investment Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 211M to 216M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on MTG stock?
5 analysts cover MTG with an average 12-month price target of $28.25. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.