MSI
Motorola Solutions Inc
NYSE: MSI · TECHNOLOGY · COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT
$392.17
-0.09% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$68.96B
P/E ratio
33.53
P/S ratio
5.81x
EPS (TTM)
$12.39
Dividend yield
1.12%
52W range
$358 – $489
Volume
1.1M
Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MSI price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$392.17
Today
Analyst consensus
$504.67
+28.69% · 12M
2030 Base
$326.55
-16.73% future
NPV today
$214.00
@ 10% WACC
17 analysts:
12 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Greg Brown raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $12.8B (from prior $12.6B midpoint), implying ~9.5% growth. Management emphasized strong public safety software/services demand and $100M Silvus expansion to scale tactical networking. No specific 2027-2030 targets disclosed, but Q1 2026 call emphasized long-term TAM expansion in software-as-a-service, AI-driven public safety platforms, and defense communications.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MSI · Motorola Solutions Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$115.07
NPV today: $75.41
Base case (2030)
$326.55
NPV today: $214.00
Bull case (2030)
$643.78
NPV today: $421.90
WallStSmart.com
MSI financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7B | $12.8B | $14.1B | $15.4B | $16.6B | $17.8B |
| Revenue growth | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% |
| Net margin | — | 22.2% | 22.5% | 22.6% | 22.5% | 22.3% |
| EPS | $13.94 | $17.08 | $18.95 | $20.75 | $22.25 | $23.60 |
| Diluted shares | — | 166M | 167M | 167M | 168M | 168M |
| Net debt | — | $6.90B | $5.03B | $3.00B | $791.84M | $-1.57B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $189.18 | $222.80 | $257.41 | $291.81 | $326.55 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.8B | $17.8B | $17.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 168M | 168M | 168M |
| Net debt | $-1.57B | $-1.57B | $-1.57B |
| Implied P/E † | 5x | 14x | 27x |
| 2030 Price | $115.07 | $326.55 | $643.78 |
| NPV @ 10% | $75.41 | $214.00 | $421.90 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MSI is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $326.55 base case
MSI catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ $100M Silvus Technologies manufacturing expansion (Salt Lake City facility, 200 jobs) to accelerate StreamCaster MANET radio production for defense/law enforcement
+ AI-driven public safety software platform monetization (enterprise intelligence, unified records, mission-critical 911 integration)
+ Multi-year government contracts and defense modernization spending (U.S. public safety budgets, international tactical communications)
+ Software-as-a-service transition driving higher-margin recurring revenue (subscription-based emergency response platforms)
+ Potential M&A in advanced comms and public safety AI (Exacom acquisition May 2026 signals consolidation strategy)
Key risks
- Supply chain normalization and Silvus earnout non-cash charges pressuring operating margins (Q1 2026 showed margin compression despite revenue beat)
- Government budget cycles and public safety capex deferrals (cyclical spending dependent on political priorities and fiscal health)
- Competition from Cisco, Ericsson, and Zebra Technologies in enterprise comms and IoT platforms
- Customer concentration in public safety/defense sectors limits diversification; enterprise IT slowdown could impact cross-selling
- Integration execution risk on Exacom and Silvus acquisitions; talent retention in high-growth Silvus division
Methodology · Motorola Solutions Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Motorola Solutions Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 17 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for MSI by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.57B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.935) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
MSI price target FAQ
What is the MSI price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Motorola Solutions Inc 2030 base case is $326.55 per share, with a bull case of $643.78 and bear case of $115.07. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $214.00.
How is the Motorola Solutions Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MSI 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MSI price target account for dilution?
Motorola Solutions Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 166M to 168M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on MSI stock?
17 analysts cover MSI with an average 12-month price target of $504.67. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.