MRK

Merck & Company Inc

NYSE: MRK · HEALTHCARE · DRUG MANUFACTURERS - GENERAL

$119.05

-1.42% today

Updated 2026-06-12

Market cap

$285.64B

P/E ratio

32.58

P/S ratio

4.34x

EPS (TTM)

$3.55

Dividend yield

2.85%

52W range

$75 – $124

Volume

9.4M

Market cap

$285.64B

P/E ratio

32.58

P/S ratio

4.34x

EPS (TTM)

$3.55

Dividend yield

2.85%

52W range

$75 – $124

Volume

9.4M

Merck & Company Inc (MRK) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Research-backed MRK price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.

Current price

$119.05

Today

Analyst consensus

$128.18

+7.67% · 12M

2030 Base

—

— future

NPV today

—

@ — WACC

30 analysts:

12 Buy7 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

Merck upgraded its full-year 2026 guidance following Q1 beat, with strong Keytruda momentum. CEO guidance indicates confidence in sustained growth driven by oncology portfolio expansion and strategic acquisitions (Terns Pharmaceuticals completed). No specific revenue cap disclosed, but 2026 guidance revised upward from initial $67.39B to approximately $68-69B range based on Q1 performance trajectory.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

MRK · Merck & Company Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E

Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range

Bear case (2030)

—

NPV today: —

Base case (2030)

—

NPV today: —

Bull case (2030)

—

NPV today: —

WallStSmart.com

MRK financial forecast · Research-backed projections

Metric	2025	2026 (E)	2027 (E)	2028 (E)	2029 (E)	2030 (E) ★
Revenue	$64.9B	$68.5B	$72.4B	$76.8B	$80.6B	$84.2B
Revenue growth	1.2%	5.3%	5.7%	6.1%	4.9%	4.5%
Net margin	—	—	—	—	—	—
EPS	$8.12	$5.50	$9.78	$11.20	$11.80	$12.40
Diluted shares	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net debt	—	—	—	—	—	—
P/S multiple	—	2.0x	2.0x	2.0x	2.0x	2.0x
Implied price (base)	—	$112.37	$112.37	$123.61	$134.84	$134.84

★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.

Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes

2030E driver	Bear	Base	Bull
Revenue	$84.2B	$84.2B	$84.2B
P/S multiple	1.0x	2.0x	4.0x
Diluted shares	0M	0M	0M
Net debt	—	—	—
Implied P/E ^†	—	—	—
2030 Price	$—	$—	$—
NPV @ —	$—	$—	$—

† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MRK is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.

EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $— base case

MRK catalysts and risks

Growth catalysts

+ Keytruda patent cliff mitigation through pipeline expansion (20+ new growth drivers targeted by mid-2030s)

+ Terns Pharmaceuticals acquisition completion driving CML portfolio strength

+ Winrevair momentum ($525M run rate) and PCSK9 inhibitor (Enlicitide) advancement

+ Vaccine portfolio strength and animal health segment growth

+ Multiple oncology combination trial successes (e.g., Erasca ERAS-0015 collaboration with Keytruda)

Key risks

- Keytruda patent cliff (peak $8.9B sales) beginning 2028-2029, requiring successful pipeline transition

- EPS volatility from acquisition amortization and integration costs (evidenced by Q1 2026 EPS swings)

- Competitive intensity in oncology and GLP-1 therapeutics from Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk

- Regulatory and clinical execution risk on 20+ pipeline candidates needed to offset Keytruda decline

- Valuation pressure with 31.6x P/E multiple limiting upside optionality

Methodology · Merck & Company Inc 2030 stock forecast model

Merck & Company Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 30 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:

1. Share dilution	Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-100% cumulative for MRK by 2030)
2. Net debt	EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory (— by 2030)
3. Time value	NPV calculated using — WACC (sector fallback)
4. Multiple framework	P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 4.0x
5. Scenario design	Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently

WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 14, 2026.

MRK price target FAQ

How is the Merck & Company Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?

The MRK 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.

What is the analyst consensus on MRK stock?

30 analysts cover MRK with an average 12-month price target of $128.18. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.