MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc
NYSE: MLM · BASIC MATERIALS · BUILDING MATERIALS
$585.98
-0.87% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$34.67B
P/E ratio
36.20
P/S ratio
5.46x
EPS (TTM)
$15.95
Dividend yield
0.58%
52W range
$525 – $709
Volume
0.5M
Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MLM price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$585.98
Today
Analyst consensus
$689.81
+17.72% · 12M
2030 Base
$496.02
-15.35% future
NPV today
$310.44
@ 11% WACC
22 analysts:
11 Buy7 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
MLM management guided to mid-single-digit organic growth in 2026 (approximately 5-7%) following a reset after strong 2025 (8.6% growth to $6.15B). Management cited moderating infrastructure demand and cost pressures but emphasized long-term tailwinds from infrastructure and data center buildouts. No specific 2027-2030 revenue targets provided; guidance remains conservative relative to underlying TAM.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MLM · Martin Marietta Materials Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$150.68
NPV today: $94.31
Base case (2030)
$496.02
NPV today: $310.44
Bull case (2030)
$841.35
NPV today: $526.57
WallStSmart.com
MLM financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.5B | $7.3B | $8.1B | $8.9B | $9.7B | $10.4B |
| Revenue growth | 0.1% | 18.4% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% |
| Net margin | — | 17.2% | 18.5% | 19.3% | 19.7% | 19.9% |
| EPS | $18.83 | $20.80 | $24.95 | $28.65 | $31.80 | $34.40 |
| Diluted shares | — | 60M | 60M | 60M | 60M | 60M |
| Net debt | — | $4.61B | $3.90B | $3.11B | $2.25B | $1.33B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $286.61 | $339.36 | $393.99 | $446.66 | $496.02 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.4B | $10.4B | $10.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 60M | 60M | 60M |
| Net debt | $1.33B | $1.33B | $1.33B |
| Implied P/E † | 4x | 14x | 25x |
| 2030 Price | $150.68 | $496.02 | $841.35 |
| NPV @ 11% | $94.31 | $310.44 | $526.57 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MLM is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $496.02 base case
MLM catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Infrastructure and data center buildout acceleration (AI capex spending by Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon driving aggregates/cement demand)
+ Successful integration of recent Quikrete acquisition and cross-selling synergies in aggregates/dry mix portfolio
+ Margin expansion from pricing power in tight aggregates market and operational efficiency initiatives under new COO Christopher Samborski
+ Public construction spending via Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) deployment through 2026-2030
+ Residential recovery if mortgage rates stabilize and new housing starts accelerate post-2026
Key risks
- Macroeconomic slowdown reducing construction activity and aggregates demand (recession risk)
- Margin compression from rising diesel/fuel costs and wage inflation (high operating leverage in aggregates)
- Data center capex pulls forward in 2026, then decelerates sharply in 2027-2028 (lumpy demand pattern)
- Increased competition from CRH, Vulcan Materials (VMC) in aggregates market limiting pricing power
- Rising interest rates and mortgage rate pressure reducing residential building demand (near-term headwind evident in May 2026 news)
- Integration execution risk on Quikrete acquisition and cross-selling realization
Methodology · Martin Marietta Materials Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Martin Marietta Materials Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 22 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for MLM by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($1.33B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.136) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
MLM price target FAQ
What is the MLM price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Martin Marietta Materials Inc 2030 base case is $496.02 per share, with a bull case of $841.35 and bear case of $150.68. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $310.44.
How is the Martin Marietta Materials Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MLM 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MLM price target account for dilution?
Martin Marietta Materials Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 60M to 60M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on MLM stock?
22 analysts cover MLM with an average 12-month price target of $689.81. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.