MKSI
MKS Instruments Inc
NASDAQ: MKSI · TECHNOLOGY · SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS
$319.71
-8.65% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$24.02B
P/E ratio
74.57
P/S ratio
5.90x
EPS (TTM)
$4.77
Dividend yield
0.26%
52W range
$88 – $359
Volume
1.1M
MKS Instruments Inc (MKSI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MKSI price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$319.71
Today
Analyst consensus
$318.77
-0.29% · 12M
2030 Base
$352.14
+10.14% future
NPV today
$181.95
@ 15% WACC
15 analysts:
12 Buy2 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
MKS provided Q2 2026 guidance of $1.04B revenue with non-GAAP EPS of $2.00. CEO has emphasized strong demand across semiconductor, electronics, and packaging markets driven by AI-related capex from hyperscalers. Management highlighted broad-based strength in bookings and expectation for continued momentum through 2026, implying full-year 2026 revenue approaching $4.9B-$5.2B based on current run-rate and guidance trajectory.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MKSI · MKS Instruments Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$111.75
NPV today: $57.74
Base case (2030)
$352.14
NPV today: $181.95
Bull case (2030)
$592.53
NPV today: $306.16
WallStSmart.com
MKSI financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.9B | $4.9B | $5.7B | $6.5B | $7.4B | $8.2B |
| Revenue growth | 9.6% | 24.7% | 16.3% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 10.8% |
| Net margin | — | 16.4% | 17.8% | 18.3% | 18.2% | 17.9% |
| EPS | $7.88 | $11.88 | $14.99 | $17.50 | $19.80 | $21.50 |
| Diluted shares | — | 68M | 68M | 68M | 68M | 68M |
| Net debt | — | $3.39B | $2.81B | $2.16B | $1.41B | $576.27M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $167.09 | $210.66 | $255.24 | $305.40 | $352.14 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.2B | $8.2B | $8.2B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 68M | 68M | 68M |
| Net debt | $576.27M | $576.27M | $576.27M |
| Implied P/E † | 5x | 16x | 28x |
| 2030 Price | $111.75 | $352.14 | $592.53 |
| NPV @ 15% | $57.74 | $181.95 | $306.16 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MKSI is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $352.14 base case
MKSI catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Sustained hyperscaler capex for AI infrastructure (Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon) through 2028-2030
+ Semiconductor WFE (wafer fab equipment) spending recovery driven by sub-3nm and advanced node demand
+ AI-driven PCB complexity increases driving demand for MKS flex drilling and chemistry solutions
+ Potential M&A or strategic acquisitions to consolidate leadership in high-margin segments
+ Operating leverage from 40%+ gross margins as scale increases and mix improves toward higher-margin products
Key risks
- Cyclical semiconductor industry downturn or capex pullback from hyperscalers in 2028-2029
- High leverage (Debt/Equity 1.53x) limits financial flexibility in recession; refinancing risk on $1.4B short-term debt
- Insider selling signals (directors sold ~$1.7M in May 2026) suggest potential valuation concerns at current 65x P/E
- Competition from larger diversified suppliers (TDY, ENTG, KEYS) in capital equipment markets
- Geopolitical and trade risks; semiconductor industry concentration in Taiwan and South Korea
- Valuation compression risk if growth decelerates faster than modeled or if rates remain elevated
Methodology · MKS Instruments Inc 2030 stock forecast model
MKS Instruments Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 15 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for MKSI by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($576.27M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 15% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.974) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
MKSI price target FAQ
What is the MKSI price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's MKS Instruments Inc 2030 base case is $352.14 per share, with a bull case of $592.53 and bear case of $111.75. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 15% WACC is $181.95.
How is the MKS Instruments Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MKSI 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MKSI price target account for dilution?
MKS Instruments Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 68M to 68M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on MKSI stock?
15 analysts cover MKSI with an average 12-month price target of $318.77. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.