WallStSmart
MELI

MercadoLibre Inc.

NASDAQ: MELI · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · INTERNET RETAIL

$1,792.63
+1.45% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$90.88B
P/E ratio
45.45
P/S ratio
3.15x
EPS (TTM)
$39.44
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$1,593 – $2,645
Volume
0.5M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$1,792.63
Consensus
$2,733.00
+52.46%
2030 Target
$20,071.58
+1019.67%
DCF
$4,981.85
+59.49% MoS
16 analysts:
6 Buy2 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

No specific long-term revenue targets disclosed by CEO Marcos Galperin in recent earnings calls. Company announced $3.4B investment in Argentina for 2026 (30% increase from 2025) and $11B in Brazil, signaling aggressive market expansion but without explicit revenue guidance through 2030. Q4 2025 showed 45% YoY revenue growth ($8.76B quarterly), but management is focused on market share gains over near-term profitability.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$33,452.64
$85.0B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$20,071.58
$85.0B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$13,381.06
$85.0B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$15.1B$20.8B$28.9B$39.2B$48.8B$59.4B$71.3B$85.0B
Revenue growth—37.5%39.1%35.6%24.5%21.8%20.0%19.1%
EPS$19.54$37.70$39.40$58.52$81.57$105.00$132.50$163.00
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$9,263.81$11,493.98$14,067.26$16,812.10$20,071.58

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Mercado Pago fintech expansion across Latin America (fastest-growing segment)
+ Logistics network buildout in Brazil and Argentina (capex-driven competitive moat)
+ Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth acceleration in emerging markets
+ AI integration into marketplace and payments platform
+ Market share gains as Amazon enters 15-minute grocery in Brazil
Key risks
- Margin compression from $3.4B Argentina + $11B Brazil strategic investments reducing near-term profitability
- JPMorgan downgrade citing GMV/TPV growth deceleration and cautious 2026 guidance
- Macroeconomic volatility in Latin America (Argentina inflation, currency headwinds)
- Competitive pressure from Amazon, regional fintech players (PagSeguro, StoneCo)
- Stock down 35% from 52W high despite 45% revenue growth (market skeptical on reinvestment thesis)

Methodology

MercadoLibre Inc.'s forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 16 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.