MEDP
Medpace Holdings Inc
NASDAQ: MEDP · HEALTHCARE · DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH
$417.29
-0.97% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$13.35B
P/E ratio
29.41
P/S ratio
4.98x
EPS (TTM)
$15.89
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$294 – $629
Volume
0.4M
Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MEDP price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$417.29
Today
Analyst consensus
$467.08
+11.93% · 12M
2030 Base
$454.36
+8.88% future
NPV today
$280.84
@ 11% WACC
15 analysts:
4 Buy10 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
CEO August James Troendle has not publicly issued specific 2026-2030 revenue targets. Q1 2026 guidance implied continued mid-to-high teens growth trajectory. Management maintains focus on CRO market expansion driven by increased biopharma R&D spending, but forward guidance is constrained by recent cancellation rate disclosures (Q4 2025 book-to-bill 1.04x vs. prior 1.3x+), signaling near-term headwinds despite long-term TAM tailwinds.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MEDP · Medpace Holdings Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$283.98
NPV today: $175.53
Base case (2030)
$454.36
NPV today: $280.84
Bull case (2030)
$965.52
NPV today: $596.79
WallStSmart.com
MEDP financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.5B | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.9B | $4.4B | $4.9B |
| Revenue growth | 20.0% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 11.4% |
| Net margin | — | 17.2% | 17.4% | 17.6% | 17.3% | 17.0% |
| EPS | $15.30 | $17.75 | $20.50 | $23.80 | $26.50 | $29.00 |
| Diluted shares | — | 29M | 29M | 29M | 29M | 29M |
| Net debt | — | $-494.56M | $-1.06B | $-1.71B | $-2.45B | $-3.28B |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $223.45 | $272.76 | $330.42 | $391.56 | $454.36 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.9B | $4.9B | $4.9B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 29M | 29M | 29M |
| Net debt | $-3.28B | $-3.28B | $-3.28B |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 16x | 33x |
| 2030 Price | $283.98 | $454.36 | $965.52 |
| NPV @ 11% | $175.53 | $280.84 | $596.79 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MEDP is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $454.36 base case
MEDP catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Resolution of securities litigation (June 8, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline) and investor confidence recovery post-cancellation disclosure
+ Normalization of CRO backlog cancellation rates post-metabolic trial mix headwinds (Q4 2025 book-to-bill pressure)
+ Expansion in Phase I-II complex trial capacity as biopharma pipeline transitions post-patent cliff uncertainty
+ AI-enabled trial optimization and decentralized trial adoption could accelerate trial economics and MEDP's competitive positioning
Key risks
- Ongoing securities class action lawsuit alleging misstatement of cancellation rates and book-to-bill guidance (April 22, 2025–Feb 9, 2026 period); lead plaintiff deadline June 8, 2026; material reputational/financial impact if unfavorable
- Book-to-bill ratio collapsed from 1.3x+ to 1.04x in Q4 2025 (metabolic trial mix, client project deferrals); recovery timeline uncertain; could signal CRO market softening or MEDP-specific execution issues
- Biopharma R&D budget cycles highly sensitive to FDA approval cycles, M&A consolidation, and venture capital funding volatility; no hedging mechanism for demand shocks
- Competitive intensity from IQVIA, ICON, and Labcorp in large trials; Medpace's mid-market focus and smaller scale vs. tier-1 peers creates pricing/margin pressure
- Margin compression: Q1 2026 gross margin 27.78% (vs. 28.02% historical), operating margin pressure from cancellations; recovery contingent on reacceleration
Methodology · Medpace Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Medpace Holdings Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 15 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for MEDP by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-3.28B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.188) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
MEDP price target FAQ
What is the MEDP price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Medpace Holdings Inc 2030 base case is $454.36 per share, with a bull case of $965.52 and bear case of $283.98. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $280.84.
How is the Medpace Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MEDP 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MEDP price target account for dilution?
Medpace Holdings Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 29M to 29M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on MEDP stock?
15 analysts cover MEDP with an average 12-month price target of $467.08. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.