MDU
MDU Resources Group Inc
NYSE: MDU · UTILITIES · UTILITIES - REGULATED GAS
$21.11
+0.96% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$4.41B
P/E ratio
22.95
P/S ratio
2.44x
EPS (TTM)
$0.92
Dividend yield
2.63%
52W range
$15 – $23
Volume
1.7M
MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MDU price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$21.11
Today
Analyst consensus
$21.75
+3.03% · 12M
2030 Base
$-3.19
-115.11% future
NPV today
$-3.19
@ 7% WACC
6 analysts:
1 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
MDU management affirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $0.93–$1.00 per share (mid-point ~$0.965). The company announced increased capital investment plans for 2026–2030, with the Bakken East Pipeline project representing $2.7B–$3.2B in capex and 40% of committed capacity already secured under signed agreements. Management targets long-term dividend payout ratio of 60–70% of earnings, implying sustainable earnings growth trajectory.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MDU · MDU Resources Group Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$-3.19
NPV today: $-3.19
Base case (2030)
$-3.19
NPV today: $-3.19
Bull case (2030)
$21.99
NPV today: $16.31
WallStSmart.com
MDU financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.6B |
| Revenue growth | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% |
| Net margin | — | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.5% |
| EPS | $0.93 | $0.97 | $1.05 | $1.13 | $1.22 | $1.32 |
| Diluted shares | — | 209M | 210M | 210M | 210M | 210M |
| Net debt | — | $2.52B | $2.70B | $2.89B | $3.10B | $3.32B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $-2.39 | $-2.58 | $-2.78 | $-2.97 | $-3.19 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.6B | $2.6B | $2.6B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 3.0x |
| Diluted shares | 210M | 210M | 210M |
| Net debt | $3.32B | $3.32B | $3.32B |
| Implied P/E † | -2x | -2x | 17x |
| 2030 Price | $-3.19 | $-3.19 | $21.99 |
| NPV @ 7% | $-3.19 | $-3.19 | $16.31 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MDU is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $-3.19 base case
MDU catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Bakken East Pipeline project completion (2028–2030): $2.7B–$3.2B capex with 40% capacity pre-committed, expected to materially boost regulated gas segment revenue and earnings
+ Rate relief from regulatory approvals: Wind farm investment (Badger), data center load expansion, and infrastructure modernization driving rate base growth and earnings accretion
+ Data center load service expansion: Capital-light business model leveraging existing gas and electric infrastructure to serve hyperscaler demand (Grid United North Plains Connector 150 MW commitment)
+ Organic customer growth and weather normalization: Q1 2026 revenue impacted by mild winter; normalization plus rate base additions should support mid-single-digit to low-double-digit revenue growth
Key risks
- Weather volatility: Mild winters (as seen in Q1 2026) compress gas utility revenues; heating degree days are unpredictable and can create earnings swings
- Regulatory risk: Rate recovery and Bakken East pipeline approval delays could push capex realization and revenue recognition into later years or reduce total project size
- Rising capital costs: Inflationary pressure on construction and financing costs could reduce Bakken East project economics or delay expansion phases
- Transition risk: Large-scale divestiture of energy products segment (2021–2022) created baseline revenue cliff; company is still normalizing to regulated utility model with lower margins but more stable cash flows
- Analyst consensus showing deteriorating sentiment: Buy ratings declining (3 in mid-2024 → 1 in May 2026); Hold ratings rising; suggests institutional confidence is waning despite valuation support
Methodology · MDU Resources Group Inc 2030 stock forecast model
MDU Resources Group Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 6 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for MDU by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($3.32B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 7% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.399) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 3.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
MDU price target FAQ
What is the MDU price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's MDU Resources Group Inc 2030 base case is $-3.19 per share, with a bull case of $21.99 and bear case of $-3.19. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 7% WACC is $-3.19.
How is the MDU Resources Group Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MDU 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MDU price target account for dilution?
MDU Resources Group Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 209M to 210M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on MDU stock?
6 analysts cover MDU with an average 12-month price target of $21.75. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.