LTH
Life Time Group Holdings Inc
NYSE: LTH · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · LEISURE
$34.31
-1.61% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$7.64B
P/E ratio
20.06
P/S ratio
2.48x
EPS (TTM)
$1.71
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$24 – $35
Volume
2.7M
Life Time Group Holdings Inc (LTH) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed LTH price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$34.31
Today
Analyst consensus
$40.64
+18.45% · 12M
2030 Base
$-3.15
-109.18% future
NPV today
$-3.15
@ 13% WACC
14 analysts:
9 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
No explicit forward revenue guidance for 2026-2030 provided in recent earnings or press releases. However, LTH has demonstrated consistent organic growth (12-14% TTM) while simultaneously executing geographic expansion (Phoenix, Orlando, Boise markets in 2026), acquisition strategy (Phoenix 10K race), and new revenue streams (Dynamic Nutrition Coaching launched May 2026 across 190+ clubs with 500+ coaches). Management's capital deployment (share repurchases, sale-leaseback of $200M) and member acquisition focus suggest confidence in 10%+ sustainable growth through 2028.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
LTH · Life Time Group Holdings Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$-3.15
NPV today: $-3.15
Base case (2030)
$-3.15
NPV today: $-3.15
Bull case (2030)
$22.47
NPV today: $12.95
WallStSmart.com
LTH financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.0B | $3.6B | $4.2B | $4.8B | $5.3B | $5.9B |
| Revenue growth | 14.3% | 18.2% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 11.2% |
| Net margin | — | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 12.0% |
| EPS | $1.51 | $1.72 | $2.08 | $2.42 | $2.71 | $3.08 |
| Diluted shares | — | 224M | 226M | 227M | 228M | 229M |
| Net debt | — | $4.30B | $4.78B | $5.32B | $5.92B | $6.59B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $-2.89 | $-2.60 | $-2.50 | $-2.81 | $-3.15 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.9B | $5.9B | $5.9B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 229M | 229M | 229M |
| Net debt | $6.59B | $6.59B | $6.59B |
| Implied P/E † | -1x | -1x | 7x |
| 2030 Price | $-3.15 | $-3.15 | $22.47 |
| NPV @ 13% | $-3.15 | $-3.15 | $12.95 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because LTH is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $-3.15 base case
LTH catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Expansion of athletic country club footprint (opened Ocotillo AZ, Paradise Valley AZ, Winter Park FL in Apr-May 2026; Boise ID in Apr 2026)
+ Dynamic Nutrition Coaching monetization (500+ coaches across 190+ clubs; potential high-margin recurring revenue from wellness services)
+ Same-store sales growth acceleration in mature markets with new service offerings (nutrition, VO2 max testing, hybrid fitness competitions)
+ M&A accretion from race event portfolio (Phoenix 10K acquisition; positioned to scale fitness event business)
+ Member pricing power and ancillary service penetration (pilates demand surge noted Feb 2026; Dynamic Personal Training + Dynamic Stretch integration)
Key risks
- Significant insider selling activity (director Galashan sold $157M on May 7, 2026; Partners Group divested $23.5M on May 7, 2026; CFO Weaver sold $719K on May 8, 2026) during strong earnings period suggests overvaluation concerns among sophisticated insiders
- Earnings quality issue: $98M in unusual/non-recurring items in trailing twelve months inflates statutory earnings; underlying organic earnings power may be lower, risking 2027 growth deceleration if unusual items don't recur
- Consumer discretionary cyclicality: fitness memberships are first-cut expense in economic downturns; 2026-2027 recession risk could compress member growth and pricing power
- Valuation at 18.7x P/E trades at premium to leisure peers (Six Flags ~9x, Peloton volatile); limited margin for multiple compression if growth decelerates below 10%
- Competitive intensity: boutique fitness (Peloton, Apple Fitness+) and low-cost gym operators (Planet Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness) capturing price-sensitive segments; high-end positioning limits addressable market
Methodology · Life Time Group Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Life Time Group Holdings Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 14 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for LTH by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($6.59B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 13% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.495) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
LTH price target FAQ
What is the LTH price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Life Time Group Holdings Inc 2030 base case is $-3.15 per share, with a bull case of $22.47 and bear case of $-3.15. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 13% WACC is $-3.15.
How is the Life Time Group Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The LTH 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the LTH price target account for dilution?
Life Time Group Holdings Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 223M to 229M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on LTH stock?
14 analysts cover LTH with an average 12-month price target of $40.64. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.