LRCX
Lam Research Corp
NASDAQ: LRCX · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS
$366.81
+1.18% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$418.20B
P/E ratio
63.34
P/S ratio
19.29x
EPS (TTM)
$5.28
Dividend yield
0.32%
52W range
$84 – $346
Volume
9.3M
Lam Research Corp (LRCX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed LRCX price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$366.81
Today
Analyst consensus
$309.50
-15.62% · 12M
2030 Base
$665.50
+81.43% future
NPV today
$357.93
@ 14% WACC
34 analysts:
27 Buy7 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Lam Research has not issued specific multi-year revenue targets through 2030 in recent guidance. However, management has indicated sustained AI-driven demand with confidence in long-term WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) growth. FY2026 guidance implies ~$23.7B revenue (28.7% growth YoY from $18.4B in FY2025), with expectations for continued elevated capex from hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, TSMC, Samsung) through 2028.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
LRCX · Lam Research Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$437.15
NPV today: $235.12
Base case (2030)
$665.50
NPV today: $357.93
Bull case (2030)
$1,030.86
NPV today: $554.44
WallStSmart.com
LRCX financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.4B | $23.7B | $30.9B | $39.9B | $49.2B | $57.4B |
| Revenue growth | 23.7% | 28.7% | 30.0% | 29.3% | 23.3% | 16.7% |
| Net margin | — | 30.8% | 32.7% | 33.8% | 33.7% | 33.8% |
| EPS | $2.53 | $5.83 | $8.04 | $10.75 | $13.20 | $15.45 |
| Diluted shares | — | 1252M | 1253M | 1254M | 1256M | 1257M |
| Net debt | — | $81.03M | $-5.64B | $-13.05B | $-22.17B | $-32.82B |
| P/S multiple | — | 14.0x | 14.0x | 14.0x | 14.0x | 14.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $265.32 | $349.18 | $455.74 | $566.25 | $665.50 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $57.4B | $57.4B | $57.4B |
| P/S multiple | 9.0x | 14.0x | 22.0x |
| Diluted shares | 1257M | 1257M | 1257M |
| Net debt | $-32.82B | $-32.82B | $-32.82B |
| Implied P/E † | 28x | 43x | 67x |
| 2030 Price | $437.15 | $665.50 | $1,030.86 |
| NPV @ 14% | $235.12 | $357.93 | $554.44 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because LRCX is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $665.50 base case
LRCX catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Sustained AI capex from hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Google, Tesla Terafab) through 2028; $60B+ annual spend flagged
+ TSMC, Samsung, Intel advanced node expansion driving etch/deposition equipment demand; multi-year buildout cycles
+ Lam's opening of Austria R&D lab for panel-level packaging; new technology node transitions in 2027-2028
+ Memory chip shortage resolution driving DRAM/HBM investment across fabs; structural shift vs. cyclical peak
+ Market share gains in advanced logic etch tools; differentiated high-margin product portfolio
Key risks
- Cyclical downturn in semiconductor WFE if hyperscaler capex decelerates faster than projected (2029-2030)
- US-China export restrictions tightening; loss of China revenue would reduce TAM materially (~15-20% of WFE historically)
- Over-capacity buildout: if fabs front-load capex and pull forward 2028-2030 demand into 2026-2027, outer-year revenue could decelerate sharply
- Macro recession reducing corporate tech spending and fab utilization; LRCX is acyclical vs. demand destruction
- Competition from ASML, Applied Materials on specialized tools; LRCX market share compression in certain segments
Methodology · Lam Research Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Lam Research Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 34 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for LRCX by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-32.82B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 9.0x / base 14.0x / bull 22.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
LRCX price target FAQ
What is the LRCX price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Lam Research Corp 2030 base case is $665.50 per share, with a bull case of $1,030.86 and bear case of $437.15. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $357.93.
How is the Lam Research Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The LRCX 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the LRCX price target account for dilution?
Lam Research Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 1251M to 1257M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on LRCX stock?
34 analysts cover LRCX with an average 12-month price target of $309.50. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.