WallStSmart
LRCX

Lam Research Corp

NASDAQ: LRCX · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS

$257.86
+3.66% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$311.08B
P/E ratio
46.93
P/S ratio
14.35x
EPS (TTM)
$5.30
Dividend yield
0.40%
52W range
$72 – $276
Volume
10.0M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Lam Research Corp (LRCX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$257.86
Consensus
$311.00
+20.61%
2030 Target
$415.04
+60.96%
DCF
$344.32
+25.11% MoS
25 analysts:
10 Buy4 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

Lam Research raised its 2026 wafer fab equipment (WFE) outlook to $140 billion with upside bias, driven by accelerating AI-demand and increased deposition/etch intensity for NAND, DRAM, and foundry/logic. CEO Timothy Archer indicated sustained outperformance through 2026-2027 from AI-driven technology inflections and record growth in advanced packaging and customer support services. Management expects significant continued growth beyond 2027 as AI infrastructure capex cycles mature globally.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$699.01
$44.5B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$415.04
$44.5B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$283.97
$44.5B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$17.4B$14.9B$18.4B$23.0B$28.8B$34.1B$40.1B$44.5B
Revenue growth—-14.5%23.7%24.7%25.4%20.1%15.1%11.0%
EPS—$3.03$2.53$5.42$7.09$8.52$10.03$11.13
P/S ratio———6.0x6.0x27.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$107.11$133.89$230.04$371.35$415.04

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ AI chip demand driving record WFE spending ($140B+ in 2026 vs. historical $100B average)
+ Advanced packaging technology adoption requiring new deposition/etch equipment across TSMC, Samsung, Intel fabs
+ Elon Musk's Terafab chip manufacturing initiative signaling $13 trillion structural shift in fab capex
+ TSMC A12/A13 chip production ramp (2026-2029) requiring sustained tool spending
+ Customer Support Business Group reaching $2B quarterly run-rate with high-margin recurring revenue
+ China semiconductor restrictions increasing qualified WFE demand in US/APAC (excluding mainland)
Key risks
- Valuation compression risk: P/E of 54.6x vs. 5Y average of 25-30x creates downside if growth stalls
- China revenue exposure (~20% of sales) threatened by US export controls on chip tool sales
- Memory chip demand cyclicality: NAND/DRAM fab capacity additions could normalize by 2028-2029
- Competitive pressure from Applied Materials and ASML on market share and pricing
- Geopolitical restrictions limiting equipment sales to Chinese fabs could constrain 2029+ growth
- Post-2027 AI capex normalization as hyperscaler infrastructure buildout matures

Methodology

Lam Research Corp's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 25 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 25, 2026.