LOAR
Loar Holdings Inc.
NYSE: LOAR · INDUSTRIALS · AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
$61.22
-2.32% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$6.37B
P/E ratio
95.90
P/S ratio
11.86x
EPS (TTM)
$0.71
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$53 – $89
Volume
0.9M
Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed LOAR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$61.22
Today
Analyst consensus
$83.00
+35.58% · 12M
2030 Base
$81.90
+33.78% future
NPV today
$58.43
@ 8% WACC
6 analysts:
4 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
LOAR raised FY2026 guidance to $778.2M revenue (from prior ~$666M consensus) and $146.7M adjusted EBITDA, representing ~56.6% growth from FY2025's $496.28M. Management projects reaching $778.2M revenue by 2029 based on strong commercial aerospace demand, proprietary content pricing power, and strategic acquisitions (Harper Engineering, LMB Fans Motors, Beadlight Ltd.). CEO has signaled sustained growth through 2029 driven by niche aerospace component demand and defense backlog strength.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
LOAR · Loar Holdings Inc. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$50.02
NPV today: $35.69
Base case (2030)
$81.90
NPV today: $58.43
Bull case (2030)
$161.61
NPV today: $115.30
WallStSmart.com
LOAR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | $0.7B | $0.9B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Revenue growth | 23.2% | 56.6% | 24.9% | 19.7% | 14.2% | 12.4% |
| Net margin | — | 17.7% | 17.5% | 17.8% | 17.7% | 17.4% |
| EPS | $0.75 | $1.32 | $1.68 | $2.09 | $2.45 | $2.78 |
| Diluted shares | — | 94M | 94M | 94M | 94M | 94M |
| Net debt | — | $139.27M | $74.46M | $-4.75M | $-98.36M | $-206.38M |
| P/S multiple | — | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $35.86 | $47.17 | $58.62 | $70.20 | $81.90 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| P/S multiple | 3.0x | 5.0x | 10.0x |
| Diluted shares | 94M | 94M | 94M |
| Net debt | $-206.38M | $-206.38M | $-206.38M |
| Implied P/E † | 18x | 30x | 58x |
| 2030 Price | $50.02 | $81.90 | $161.61 |
| NPV @ 8% | $35.69 | $58.43 | $115.30 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because LOAR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $81.90 base case
LOAR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Commercial aerospace production ramp (737 MAX, A320, A350, A380 derivative expansion through 2030)
+ Defense spending acceleration post-geopolitical tensions (US DoD budget commitments, NATO allies capex)
+ Synergy realization from Harper Engineering, LMB Fans Motors, Beadlight acquisitions (margin accretion 2026-2028)
+ Niche proprietary content pricing power in flight control systems, engine components, landing gear (pricing >cost inflation)
+ Commercial air traffic recovery continuing through 2028-2030 (post-pandemic normalization, emerging market growth)
Key risks
- Aerospace supply chain disruptions or production schedule delays (Boeing, Airbus could slip)
- Defense budget cycles or geopolitical de-escalation reducing procurement velocity
- Integration execution risk on acquisitions (Harper, LMB, Beadlight) not delivering synergy targets
- Interest rate environment pressuring leverage (current Debt/Eq 0.81, elevated net debt post-M&A)
- Commercial aviation demand slowdown if macroeconomic recession hits passenger traffic
Methodology · Loar Holdings Inc. 2030 stock forecast model
Loar Holdings Inc. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 6 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for LOAR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-206.38M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.556) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 3.0x / base 5.0x / bull 10.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
LOAR price target FAQ
What is the LOAR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Loar Holdings Inc. 2030 base case is $81.90 per share, with a bull case of $161.61 and bear case of $50.02. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $58.43.
How is the Loar Holdings Inc. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The LOAR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the LOAR price target account for dilution?
Loar Holdings Inc. is projected to grow diluted share count from 94M to 94M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on LOAR stock?
6 analysts cover LOAR with an average 12-month price target of $83.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.