LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
NYSE: LLY · HEALTHCARE · DRUG MANUFACTURERS - GENERAL
$1,133.00
-2.41% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$948.95B
P/E ratio
37.74
P/S ratio
13.13x
EPS (TTM)
$28.20
Dividend yield
0.58%
52W range
$619 – $1,149
Volume
3.2M
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed LLY price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$1,133.00
Today
Analyst consensus
$1,218.00
+7.50% · 12M
2030 Base
$1,943.85
+71.57% future
NPV today
$1,416.88
@ 7% WACC
31 analysts:
25 Buy4 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
Eli Lilly raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $82-$85B (midpoint $83.5B) on May 17, 2026, following a blowout Q1 with $19.8B revenue (+55.5% YoY). Management cited strong obesity/diabetes drug penetration (Mounjaro, Zepbound, Foundayo oral GLP-1) and international expansion as primary drivers. The company is investing $4.5B additional capex in Indiana manufacturing, signaling confidence in sustained high-volume demand through 2030.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
LLY · Eli Lilly and Company · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$959.97
NPV today: $699.73
Base case (2030)
$1,943.85
NPV today: $1,416.88
Bull case (2030)
$3,518.06
NPV today: $2,564.33
WallStSmart.com
LLY financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $65.2B | $83.5B | $105.0B | $128.5B | $152.0B | $176.0B |
| Revenue growth | 44.7% | 28.1% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 18.2% | 15.8% |
| Net margin | — | 40.1% | 41.5% | 42.6% | 43.8% | 44.2% |
| EPS | $23.91 | $37.50 | $48.75 | $61.25 | $74.50 | $87.00 |
| Diluted shares | — | 893M | 894M | 894M | 894M | 894M |
| Net debt | — | $33.44B | $31.19B | $28.43B | $25.16B | $21.38B |
| P/S multiple | — | 12.0x | 12.0x | 11.0x | 10.0x | 10.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $1,085.06 | $1,375.24 | $1,548.57 | $1,671.30 | $1,943.85 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $176.0B | $176.0B | $176.0B |
| P/S multiple | 5.0x | 10.0x | 18.0x |
| Diluted shares | 894M | 894M | 894M |
| Net debt | $21.38B | $21.38B | $21.38B |
| Implied P/E † | 11x | 22x | 40x |
| 2030 Price | $959.97 | $1,943.85 | $3,518.06 |
| NPV @ 7% | $699.73 | $1,416.88 | $2,564.33 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because LLY is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $1,943.85 base case
LLY catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ GLP-1 obesity drug market expansion (Mounjaro, Zepbound, Foundayo) with global rollout expected to drive 40-60% revenue growth through 2027-2028
+ Tirzepatide (retatrutide) Phase 3 data and potential approvals in new indications (NASH, CKD, cardiovascular) expanding TAM beyond obesity
+ Oncology pipeline acceleration (Ajax Therapeutics $2.3B acquisition adding JAK2 inhibitor; existing portfolio driving 15-25% category growth)
+ Manufacturing capacity expansion ($4.5B Indiana investment + $6.5B prior commitment) enabling supply-constrained revenue capture through 2028
+ International market penetration (early innings in EU, Japan, emerging markets) with GLP-1s representing <20% of addressable market outside US
Key risks
- GLP-1 market saturation/commoditization: Novo Nordisk (NVO) competing aggressively with Wegovy pill; Pfizer/others entering market with alternative mechanisms
- Regulatory/pricing pressure: Trump administration MFN drug pricing executive order; potential Medicare negotiation expansion could cap obesity drug pricing at 50-60% of current levels
- Manufacturing execution risk: Scale-up delays at new Indiana facilities could constrain revenue growth in 2027-2028 despite demand
- Clinical trial failures in late-stage pipeline (oncology, immunology); loss of patent exclusivity on legacy products (Cialis, Humalog coming 2024-2026)
- Concentration risk: Obesity/GLP-1 category (est. 40-50% of 2026-2028 revenue growth) is new and unproven at $50B+ scale; regulatory changes could crater this TAM
Methodology · Eli Lilly and Company 2030 stock forecast model
Eli Lilly and Company 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 31 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for LLY by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($21.38B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 7% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.481) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 5.0x / base 10.0x / bull 18.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
LLY price target FAQ
What is the LLY price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Eli Lilly and Company 2030 base case is $1,943.85 per share, with a bull case of $3,518.06 and bear case of $959.97. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 7% WACC is $1,416.88.
How is the Eli Lilly and Company 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The LLY 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the LLY price target account for dilution?
Eli Lilly and Company is projected to grow diluted share count from 892M to 894M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on LLY stock?
31 analysts cover LLY with an average 12-month price target of $1,218.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.