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LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

NYSE: LLY · HEALTHCARE · DRUG MANUFACTURERS - GENERAL

$934.60
+9.80% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$760.43B
P/E ratio
37.03
P/S ratio
11.67x
EPS (TTM)
$22.99
Dividend yield
0.69%
52W range
$620 – $1,132
Volume
3.0M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$934.60
Consensus
$1,219.00
+30.43%
2030 Target
$841.14
-10.00%
DCF
—
—
19 analysts:
9 Buy1 Hold1 Sell

Management guidance

Eli Lilly raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $82.0B-$85.0B (midpoint $83.5B) and non-GAAP EPS to $35.50-$37.00 on April 30, 2026 earnings call. CEO emphasized exceptional momentum in GLP-1 franchise (Mounjaro, Zepbound, newly-approved Foundayo) with 56% Q1 revenue growth and stated the company is in the early innings of obesity/diabetes market penetration with over 20,000 patients on new pill Foundayo after just 20 days of availability.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$1,401.90
$184.0B Rev × 6.4x P/S
Base case (2030)
$841.14
$184.0B Rev × 4x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$560.76
$184.0B Rev × 2.4x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$34.1B$45.0B$65.2B$83.5B$107.0B$132.0B$158.0B$184.0B
Revenue growth—32.0%44.7%28.1%28.1%23.4%19.7%16.5%
EPS$6.32$13.00$24.21$36.25$47.50$60.00$71.00$82.00
P/S ratio———4.0x4.0x4.0x4.0x4.0x
Implied price———$373.84$467.30$654.22$747.68$841.14

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Explosive GLP-1 drug franchise growth (Mounjaro, Zepbound, Foundayo) capturing massive obesity/diabetes TAM with limited generic competition (FDA proposal to exclude from bulk compounding)
+ New oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo launched with 20,000+ patients in first 20 days; oral format drives accessibility and market expansion vs. injectables
+ Acquisitions of Centessa ($7.8B) and Ajax ($2.3B) expanding neuroscience and blood cancer pipelines; $2.25B AI gene-editing partnership with Profluent
+ Blockbuster pipeline momentum across oncology, immunology, and neuroscience; FDA approvals and Phase 3 readouts accelerating through 2026-2028
Key risks
- GLP-1 market pricing pressure from generic competition, compounding, and Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy alternative eroding pricing power and market share
- Regulatory/patent risks on key GLP-1 franchises; potential loss of exclusivity or restrictive reimbursement policies reducing addressable market
- Integration risk from $10B+ in recent M&A (Centessa, Ajax, Profluent partnerships) potentially distracting management and delaying pipeline progress
- Valuation at 38.5x P/E and 11.6x P/S leaves limited margin of safety if growth disappoints or macro conditions deteriorate

Methodology

Eli Lilly and Company's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 19 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 1, 2026.