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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc

NASDAQ: LITE · TECHNOLOGY · COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT

$902.32
+5.13% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$64.43B
P/E ratio
263.07
P/S ratio
30.60x
EPS (TTM)
$3.43
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$60 – $960
Volume
6.4M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$902.32
Consensus
$610.00
-32.40%
2030 Target
$2,149.89
+138.26%
DCF
—
—
14 analysts:
10 Buy4 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

Lumentum announced a new 240,000-sq-ft U.S. manufacturing facility in Greensboro, NC with a strategic goal to reach $5 billion in annual revenue capacity. The company is leveraging a multi-year partnership with Nvidia involving a $2 billion equity investment and multi-billion dollar purchase commitments for advanced laser components. Current Q2 FY26 revenue of $665.5M (annualizing to ~$2.66B) positions the company for sustained 50%+ growth through 2028 based on contracted backlog and AI data center capex acceleration.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$3,555.58
$11.8B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$2,149.89
$11.8B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$1,405.70
$11.8B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$1.8B$1.4B$1.6B$3.0B$4.8B$9.5B$11.8B
Revenue growth—-23.1%21.0%78.8%62.7%33.8%24.2%
EPS—$1.02$2.77$7.44$13.47$25.50$30.80
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$496.13$909.57$1,736.45$2,149.89

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Nvidia's $2B equity investment and multi-billion dollar laser component purchase commitments through 2026-2028
+ New Greensboro, NC manufacturing facility expansion (240,000 sq-ft) targeting $5B annual revenue capacity
+ Sold-out indium phosphide production through 2027 creating supply constraint advantage and pricing power
+ S&P 500 inclusion driving institutional capital inflows and index fund buying
+ AI data center capex acceleration: hyperscalers committing $100B+ annually through 2028
+ High-speed optical transceivers (1.6T, Co-Packaged Optics) becoming critical AI infrastructure bottleneck
Key risks
- Extreme valuation: P/E of 222x, P/S of 26.2x leaves minimal margin for error; any guidance miss will trigger severe correction
- Customer concentration: Heavy dependency on Nvidia and hyperscalers; loss of any major customer could collapse revenue
- Competition intensification: Coherent, Ciena, Applied Optoelectronics gaining share in optical components
- Indium phosphide supply constraints may ease 2028+, commoditizing optical components and pressuring margins
- Geopolitical risk: U.S.-China tensions could restrict exports to Chinese hyperscalers (Alibaba, Baidu)
- AI capex cycle may peak 2027-2028; saturation risk if data center buildout slows

Methodology

Lumentum Holdings Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 14 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.