WallStSmart
LEN

Lennar Corporation

NYSE: LEN · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

$88.71
-3.91% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$21.85B
P/E ratio
12.76
P/S ratio
0.66x
EPS (TTM)
$6.95
Dividend yield
2.17%
52W range
$83 – $142
Volume
3.0M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Lennar Corporation (LEN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$88.71
Consensus
$101.00
+13.85%
2030 Target
$1,859.97
+1996.69%
DCF
$171.32
+29.38% MoS
14 analysts:
1 Buy7 Hold11 Sell

Management guidance

No specific revenue targets or forward guidance from CEO disclosed in available materials. Most recent earnings (Q1 FY2026, March 2026) showed weakness with revenue decline of -13.26% YoY in latest quarter and -7.23% YoY for TTM period. Management has not provided multi-year revenue growth targets or 2026-2030 guidance.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$3,091.09
$37.4B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$1,859.97
$37.4B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$1,239.98
$37.4B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$34.2B$35.5B$34.2B$33.1B$34.6B$35.8B$36.7B$37.4B
Revenue growth—3.6%-3.6%-3.1%4.4%3.5%2.5%1.9%
EPS$13.76$14.31$8.15$6.75$8.37$9.10$9.50$9.80
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$1,647.40$1,718.26$1,780.26$1,824.54$1,859.97

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Potential KB Home acquisition to achieve $250M-$300M in annual SG&A synergies (similar to CalAtlantic merger playbook)
+ Housing affordability improvements if mortgage rates decline from elevated levels
+ Lennar's land-light strategic shift to improve capital efficiency and margins
+ Recovery in home deliveries as consumer demand stabilizes post-geopolitical uncertainty
Key risks
- Housing market weakness: Iran conflict driving consumer confidence decline and higher mortgage rates; KB Home already cut FY guidance
- Revenue headwinds: LEN down -3.54% in FY2025, down -7.23% YoY TTM; Q1 FY2026 revenue fell -13.26% YoY indicating accelerating weakness
- Analyst downgrades accelerating: 8 major downgrades since Dec 2024 (UBS Buy→Neutral, Evercore Outperform→Underperform, BofA Neutral→Underperform, Barclays Overweight→Equal Weight, JPMorgan Neutral→Underweight); consensus deteriorating from Outperform to Hold
- Affordability crisis: Unprecedented price cuts and incentives at record levels since 2010; compressed margins from discounting
- Margin compression: Profit margin at 5.4% and declining; land banking strategy under scrutiny for margin deterioration

Methodology

Lennar Corporation's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 14 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.