LASR
nLIGHT Inc
NASDAQ: LASR · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$84.95
-12.07% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$4.18B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
14.43x
EPS (TTM)
$-0.30
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$15 – $87
Volume
1.3M
nLIGHT Inc (LASR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed LASR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$84.95
Today
Analyst consensus
$67.81
-20.18% · 12M
2030 Base
$88.88
+4.63% future
NPV today
$42.59
@ 17% WACC
12 analysts:
10 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
nLIGHT has not publicly disclosed specific revenue targets for 2026-2030, but management emphasized in Q1 2026 earnings that the company is pivoting to a 'pure-play directed energy laser provider' with significant aerospace & defense segment growth (now 68.8% of revenue). CEO Scott Keeney highlighted expanded Italy operations and HADES laser platform ramp as strategic drivers for sustained high growth through the decade. The company's backlog and defense contract wins suggest management expects sustained 25%+ growth through mid-decade.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
LASR · nLIGHT Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$49.82
NPV today: $23.87
Base case (2030)
$88.88
NPV today: $42.59
Bull case (2030)
$193.04
NPV today: $92.51
WallStSmart.com
LASR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.3B | $0.3B | $0.4B | $0.5B | $0.7B | $0.8B |
| Revenue growth | 31.6% | 30.2% | 30.0% | 24.2% | 18.5% | 15.9% |
| Net margin | — | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 12.4% |
| EPS | $0.24 | $0.45 | $0.72 | $1.05 | $1.35 | $1.62 |
| Diluted shares | — | 57M | 57M | 57M | 58M | 58M |
| Net debt | — | $16.27M | $37.43M | $63.70M | $94.81M | $130.85M |
| P/S multiple | — | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $41.65 | $53.59 | $65.94 | $77.34 | $88.88 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.8B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 7.0x | 15.0x |
| Diluted shares | 58M | 58M | 58M |
| Net debt | $130.85M | $130.85M | $130.85M |
| Implied P/E † | 31x | 55x | 119x |
| 2030 Price | $49.82 | $88.88 | $193.04 |
| NPV @ 17% | $23.87 | $42.59 | $92.51 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because LASR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $88.88 base case
LASR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ HADES high-energy laser platform ramp-up for U.S. directed energy weapon systems (defense modernization spending)
+ Aerospace & Defense segment expansion (now 68.8% of revenue) benefiting from U.S. military modernization and allied defense spending
+ Italy manufacturing expansion to support European and NATO directed energy programs
+ Multi-year defense contracts and RPO (remaining performance obligations) conversion to revenue
+ Industrial laser market recovery in EV battery welding and materials processing
+ Potential for international defense procurement expansion (NATO, allied nations)
Key risks
- Concentration risk: 68.8% of Q1 2026 revenue from single A&D segment; loss of major defense contract could materially impact growth
- Execution risk: HADES platform must achieve 70kW-class performance targets and win production contracts; delays would reduce 2027-2030 projections by 20-30%
- Geopolitical/policy risk: defense spending subject to congressional appropriations; political shifts could delay or cancel directed energy programs
- Insider selling: CEO and CFO have executed significant RSU tax-cover sales in May 2026; sustained insider selling could signal confidence concerns
- Valuation risk: P/S of 13.88x and Forward P/E of 105.54x leave limited margin for error; any miss on A&D ramp could trigger sharp multiple compression
- Supply chain and manufacturing capacity: rapid scaling of Italy facility and domestic production must keep pace with demand; bottlenecks could cap upside
Methodology · nLIGHT Inc 2030 stock forecast model
nLIGHT Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for LASR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($130.85M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 17% WACC (CAPM: beta 2.335) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 7.0x / bull 15.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
LASR price target FAQ
What is the LASR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's nLIGHT Inc 2030 base case is $88.88 per share, with a bull case of $193.04 and bear case of $49.82. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 17% WACC is $42.59.
How is the nLIGHT Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The LASR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the LASR price target account for dilution?
nLIGHT Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 56M to 58M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on LASR stock?
12 analysts cover LASR with an average 12-month price target of $67.81. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.