KRMN
Karman Holdings Inc.
NYSE: KRMN · INDUSTRIALS · AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
$47.70
-5.30% today
Updated 2026-06-22
Market cap
$6.34B
P/E ratio
207.96
P/S ratio
12.13x
EPS (TTM)
$0.23
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$43 – $118
Volume
2.4M
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed KRMN price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$47.70
Today
Analyst consensus
$108.10
+126.62% · 12M
2030 Base
$85.65
+79.56% future
NPV today
$55.20
@ 10% WACC
11 analysts:
9 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Q1 2026 earnings call: Karman raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $720-735M (midpoint $727.5M), up from prior $700M+ guidance. CEO Jon Rambeau emphasized $1.0B+ in contingent multi-year demand commitments from Pentagon/major space customers, with $1.0B recorded backlog as of Q1 2026. Management signaled 'strong organic growth' and continued capacity expansion through 2027-2028 to meet defense/space demand surge.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
KRMN · Karman Holdings Inc. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$40.38
NPV today: $26.02
Base case (2030)
$85.65
NPV today: $55.20
Bull case (2030)
$187.52
NPV today: $120.84
WallStSmart.com
KRMN financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | $0.6B | $0.8B | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Revenue growth | 36.6% | 54.8% | 34.9% | 33.5% | 31.2% | 25.0% |
| Net margin | — | 15.5% | 19.1% | 20.1% | 21.6% | 23.1% |
| EPS | $0.36 | $0.68 | $1.08 | $1.52 | $2.04 | $2.62 |
| Diluted shares | — | 133M | 133M | 133M | 133M | 133M |
| Net debt | — | $486.05M | $513.24M | $549.50M | $594.82M | $649.21M |
| P/S multiple | — | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $31.34 | $41.40 | $56.22 | $70.97 | $85.65 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 8.0x | 17.0x |
| Diluted shares | 133M | 133M | 133M |
| Net debt | $649.21M | $649.21M | $649.21M |
| Implied P/E † | 15x | 33x | 72x |
| 2030 Price | $40.38 | $85.65 | $187.52 |
| NPV @ 10% | $26.02 | $55.20 | $120.84 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because KRMN is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $85.65 base case
KRMN catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ $1.0B+ contingent customer demand commitments from Pentagon missile/UAS and space programs (announced May 2026)
+ Record $1.0B backlog as of Q1 2026; conversion to revenue through 2027-2028 at high gross margins (33.6% in Q1)
+ Recent acquisitions (Siemen Composites, MSC) driving bolt-on revenue accretion and margin expansion; integration upside into 2027
+ Pentagon missile inventory replenishment and hypersonic weapons production ramp (5-7 year demand cycle); Karman is critical supplier
+ Commercial space launch demand acceleration (SpaceX IPO catalyst, reusable rocket economics); Karman supplies components
+ New Maritime Defense Systems business line (announced 2026); early-stage TAM expansion opportunity
+ Capacity expansion CapEx (announced March 2026) completing through 2027; revenue leverage in 2028-2030
Key risks
- Near-term margin pressure: analysts flagged higher-than-expected integration costs and capacity investment spend (KeyBanc, Evercore lowered 2026-2027 targets May 2026)
- Defense budget delay or reduction; geopolitical deescalation could slow Pentagon order conversion (though 5-10 year contracts provide partial insulation)
- Supply chain constraints or raw material inflation could limit revenue realization or margin expansion
- Execution risk on $1.0B contingent commitments; not all may convert to firm orders or at originally assumed pricing
- Competition from larger defense primes (Lockheed, RTX, Northrop) integrating similar capabilities; Karman's scale advantage limited
- Debt load elevated ($2.14x debt-to-equity); refinancing risk if credit markets tighten or company growth disappoints
Methodology · Karman Holdings Inc. 2030 stock forecast model
Karman Holdings Inc. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for KRMN by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($649.21M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 8.0x / bull 17.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
KRMN price target FAQ
What is the KRMN price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Karman Holdings Inc. 2030 base case is $85.65 per share, with a bull case of $187.52 and bear case of $40.38. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $55.20.
How is the Karman Holdings Inc. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The KRMN 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the KRMN price target account for dilution?
Karman Holdings Inc. is projected to grow diluted share count from 133M to 133M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on KRMN stock?
11 analysts cover KRMN with an average 12-month price target of $108.10. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.