KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
NYSE: KGS · ENERGY · OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES
$69.08
+2.92% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$6.97B
P/E ratio
90.89
P/S ratio
5.26x
EPS (TTM)
$0.76
Dividend yield
2.86%
52W range
$29 – $78
Volume
1.6M
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed KGS price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$69.08
Today
Analyst consensus
$79.33
+14.84% · 12M
2030 Base
$117.73
+70.43% future
NPV today
$76.83
@ 10% WACC
12 analysts:
7 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Kodiak raised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $820M-$860M (incorporating DPS acquisition completed April 1, 2026). Company projects strong power generation growth as a 'durable growth platform' with expansion into distributed power. No explicit 2027-2030 revenue targets disclosed, but management signaled continued compression market strength (seven consecutive quarterly margin increases) and power infrastructure as a major growth vector.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
KGS · Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$41.78
NPV today: $27.27
Base case (2030)
$117.73
NPV today: $76.83
Bull case (2030)
$193.68
NPV today: $126.40
WallStSmart.com
KGS financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.5B | $3.0B | $3.4B |
| Revenue growth | 12.8% | 25.2% | 22.9% | 23.1% | 18.9% | 14.6% |
| Net margin | — | 15.4% | 18.3% | 20.1% | 21.2% | 21.7% |
| EPS | $1.47 | $2.85 | $4.15 | $5.60 | $7.05 | $8.24 |
| Diluted shares | — | 88M | 89M | 89M | 89M | 89M |
| Net debt | — | $-44.52M | $-99.21M | $-166.53M | $-246.61M | $-338.36M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $56.11 | $69.31 | $85.63 | $102.31 | $117.73 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.4B | $3.4B | $3.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 89M | 89M | 89M |
| Net debt | $-338.36M | $-338.36M | $-338.36M |
| Implied P/E † | 5x | 14x | 24x |
| 2030 Price | $41.78 | $117.73 | $193.68 |
| NPV @ 10% | $27.27 | $76.83 | $126.40 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because KGS is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $117.73 base case
KGS catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ DPS acquisition (completed April 2026) entering full-year contribution; power generation revenue scaling to 'durable growth platform'
+ Permian gas supply tightness driving compression equipment demand; KGS executing $400M+ incremental fleet investments
+ AI data center power demand (hyperscaler capex commitments visible through 2028) driving distributed power TAM expansion
+ Seven consecutive quarterly gross margin expansion in compression (70.6% Q1 2026) indicating pricing power and operational leverage
+ $750M-$1B equity raise (May 2026) signaling management confidence in growth capex deployment
Key risks
- High leverage (2.43x debt/equity) and recent $1B debt issuance require strong FCF conversion; recession or commodity price collapse would stress debt service
- DPS integration execution risk; power generation business is nascent with unproven margins at scale
- Natural gas price compression or Permian production decline could reduce compression equipment utilization and lease rates
- P/E of 84.8x (on TTM) and 29.9x (2026E) implies very high growth expectations already embedded; any miss would trigger sharp multiple compression
- Equity dilution from May 2026 offering (~11M shares at $71; 12.4% dilution to 88.77M base) pressures near-term EPS accretion
Methodology · Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. 2030 stock forecast model
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-12% cumulative for KGS by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-338.36M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.947) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
KGS price target FAQ
What is the KGS price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. 2030 base case is $117.73 per share, with a bull case of $193.68 and bear case of $41.78. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $76.83.
How is the Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The KGS 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the KGS price target account for dilution?
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is projected to grow diluted share count from 101M to 89M by 2030 (a -12% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately -12%.
What is the analyst consensus on KGS stock?
12 analysts cover KGS with an average 12-month price target of $79.33. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.