JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
NYSE: JNJ · HEALTHCARE · DRUG MANUFACTURERS - GENERAL
$240.87
+1.07% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$536.54B
P/E ratio
25.83
P/S ratio
5.57x
EPS (TTM)
$8.63
Dividend yield
2.33%
52W range
$145 – $250
Volume
7.5M
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed JNJ price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$240.87
Today
Analyst consensus
$253.00
+5.04% · 12M
2030 Base
$312.51
+29.74% future
NPV today
$239.93
@ 6% WACC
28 analysts:
20 Buy7 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
JNJ management has not issued explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030. However, CEO guidance in Q1 2026 indicated increased confidence in operational sales growth (raised Q1 2026 guidance), suggesting acceleration from the historical 2.7% 5Y CAGR. Leerink Partners upgraded JNJ to Outperform citing 'faster revenue growth' momentum from new drug launches (JNJ-1900 in oncology, CAPLYTA expansion in neuroscience, cardiac device portfolio expansion via Atraverse acquisition). Management has guided toward mid-single-digit operational growth in near term, implying 4-6% base case for 2026-2027.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
JNJ · Johnson & Johnson · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$252.13
NPV today: $193.58
Base case (2030)
$312.51
NPV today: $239.93
Bull case (2030)
$433.26
NPV today: $332.64
WallStSmart.com
JNJ financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $94.2B | $106.2B | $117.8B | $128.5B | $137.9B | $146.8B |
| Revenue growth | 6.0% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% |
| Net margin | — | 27.6% | 28.0% | 28.2% | 28.1% | 27.8% |
| EPS | $10.80 | $12.15 | $13.65 | $14.95 | $15.95 | $16.80 |
| Diluted shares | — | 2412M | 2417M | 2422M | 2427M | 2431M |
| Net debt | — | $18.89B | $8.97B | $-1.86B | $-13.47B | $-25.83B |
| P/S multiple | — | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $212.32 | $240.00 | $266.08 | $289.70 | $312.51 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $146.8B | $146.8B | $146.8B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 5.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 2431M | 2431M | 2431M |
| Net debt | $-25.83B | $-25.83B | $-25.83B |
| Implied P/E † | 15x | 19x | 26x |
| 2030 Price | $252.13 | $312.51 | $433.26 |
| NPV @ 6% | $193.58 | $239.93 | $332.64 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because JNJ is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $312.51 base case
JNJ catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ JNJ-1900 (NBTXR3) Phase 2 lung cancer data showing 85.7% ORR; potential for accelerated oncology revenue 2027-2028
+ CAPLYTA network meta-analysis data in major depressive disorder; expansion into new indications could drive psychiatry franchise 15-25% growth
+ Atraverse Medical cardiac ablation acquisition and Shockwave C2 Aero coronary catheter launch; medical devices segment targeting 6-8% growth vs historical 3-4%
+ Pipeline advancement in immunology and cell therapy (miv-cel CAR-T partnerships); potential blockbuster approvals 2026-2028
+ Patent cliff mitigation through biosimilar partnerships and new molecular entity launches offsetting off-patent product declines
Key risks
- Regulatory setbacks in oncology pipeline (JNJ-1900 efficacy questions, Phase 3 failures); psychiatry label restrictions on CAPLYTA
- Biosimilar erosion of legacy franchises (Remicade, Stelara); projected 8-12% revenue headwind 2026-2028 if not offset by new launches
- Macroeconomic pressure on healthcare spending; Medicare drug price negotiation (Section 1192) reducing reimbursement on top 10 drugs by 25-30%
- M&A integration risk from Atraverse and other acquisitions; failure to realize synergies could dampen 2027-2028 growth targets
- Competitive pressure from Eli Lilly GLP-1 dominance and AbbVie neuroscience gains (Vraylar, tavapadon); JNJ's psychiatry pipeline may underperform
Methodology · Johnson & Johnson 2030 stock forecast model
Johnson & Johnson 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 28 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for JNJ by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-25.83B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 6% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.263) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 5.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
JNJ price target FAQ
What is the JNJ price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Johnson & Johnson 2030 base case is $312.51 per share, with a bull case of $433.26 and bear case of $252.13. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 6% WACC is $239.93.
How is the Johnson & Johnson 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The JNJ 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the JNJ price target account for dilution?
Johnson & Johnson is projected to grow diluted share count from 2407M to 2431M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on JNJ stock?
28 analysts cover JNJ with an average 12-month price target of $253.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.