ISRG
Intuitive Surgical Inc
NASDAQ: ISRG · HEALTHCARE · MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES
$411.06
-0.45% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$142.48B
P/E ratio
48.76
P/S ratio
13.46x
EPS (TTM)
$8.25
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$397 – $604
Volume
2.3M
Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ISRG price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$411.06
Today
Analyst consensus
$579.00
+40.86% · 12M
2030 Base
$515.56
+25.42% future
NPV today
$295.89
@ 13% WACC
38 analysts:
19 Buy7 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
ISRG raised FY2026 procedure growth guidance to 13-15% (from prior 12-13%) following Q1 beats. CEO has emphasized da Vinci 5 as a transformational platform driving higher procedure volumes and system utilization. No specific revenue dollar target disclosed, but guidance implies 2026 revenue growth acceleration to 18-20% range, with procedure growth as the primary lever.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ISRG · Intuitive Surgical Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$309.23
NPV today: $177.47
Base case (2030)
$515.56
NPV today: $295.89
Bull case (2030)
$1,065.78
NPV today: $611.68
WallStSmart.com
ISRG financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.1B | $12.1B | $14.8B | $17.9B | $21.2B | $24.8B |
| Revenue growth | 20.5% | 14.3% | 22.8% | 20.8% | 18.1% | 16.9% |
| Net margin | — | 32.9% | 33.9% | 34.8% | 35.3% | 35.2% |
| EPS | $8.55 | $11.20 | $14.10 | $17.45 | $20.80 | $24.20 |
| Diluted shares | — | 356M | 357M | 358M | 360M | 361M |
| Net debt | — | $-1.64B | $-3.65B | $-6.08B | $-8.95B | $-12.30B |
| P/S multiple | — | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $242.81 | $301.39 | $367.51 | $437.68 | $515.56 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.8B | $24.8B | $24.8B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 7.0x | 15.0x |
| Diluted shares | 361M | 361M | 361M |
| Net debt | $-12.30B | $-12.30B | $-12.30B |
| Implied P/E † | 13x | 21x | 44x |
| 2030 Price | $309.23 | $515.56 | $1,065.78 |
| NPV @ 13% | $177.47 | $295.89 | $611.68 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ISRG is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $515.56 base case
ISRG catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ da Vinci 5 platform adoption acceleration driving higher procedure volumes and after-hours utilization
+ International expansion and direct European operational footprint strengthening recurring revenue
+ Procedure growth guidance raise to 13-15% signals sustained momentum beyond 2026
+ Expanding installed base and hospital capital budget allocation favoring robotic surgery
Key risks
- Competitive surgical robotics entrants (J&J/Ottava, SS Innovations, others) gaining traction and market share
- Hospital capital budget constraints and macroeconomic slowdown reducing procedure volumes
- Cybersecurity vulnerabilities and regulatory scrutiny on pricing and reimbursement
- Margin pressure from increased R&D spending and manufacturing cost inflation
Methodology · Intuitive Surgical Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Intuitive Surgical Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 38 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for ISRG by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-12.30B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 13% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.509) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 7.0x / bull 15.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ISRG price target FAQ
What is the ISRG price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Intuitive Surgical Inc 2030 base case is $515.56 per share, with a bull case of $1,065.78 and bear case of $309.23. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 13% WACC is $295.89.
How is the Intuitive Surgical Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ISRG 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ISRG price target account for dilution?
Intuitive Surgical Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 354M to 361M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on ISRG stock?
38 analysts cover ISRG with an average 12-month price target of $579.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.