IONQ
IONQ Inc
NYSE: IONQ · TECHNOLOGY · COMPUTER HARDWARE
$57.85
-0.24% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$21.59B
P/E ratio
148.33
P/S ratio
115.40x
EPS (TTM)
$0.39
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$26 – $85
Volume
32.5M
IONQ Inc (IONQ) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed IONQ price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$57.85
Today
Analyst consensus
$68.63
+18.63% · 12M
2030 Base
$192.03
+231.94% future
NPV today
$94.60
@ 17% WACC
17 analysts:
10 Buy6 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
IonQ raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $260-$270M (midpoint $265M) following Q1 2026 beat of $64.7M revenue (+755% YoY). CEO has positioned the company toward a modular 10,000-qubit architecture and targets commercialization acceleration with multiproduct deals and government contracts (DARPA, Space Development Agency $39M HALO). Management implies 30%+ CAGR through 2028 based on backlog strength and SkyWater manufacturing integration.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
IONQ · IONQ Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$114.11
NPV today: $56.21
Base case (2030)
$192.03
NPV today: $94.60
Bull case (2030)
$379.05
NPV today: $186.73
WallStSmart.com
IONQ financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.1B | $0.3B | $0.5B | $0.8B | $1.1B | $1.5B |
| Revenue growth | 201.9% | 103.8% | 58.5% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 30.0% |
| Net margin | — | -144.1% | -62.1% | -16.7% | 6.0% | 19.2% |
| EPS | $0.92 | $-1.15 | $-0.82 | $-0.35 | $0.18 | $0.75 |
| Diluted shares | — | 376M | 379M | 381M | 383M | 385M |
| Net debt | — | $-903.85M | $-653.85M | $-253.85M | $321.15M | $1.07B |
| P/S multiple | — | 50.0x | 50.0x | 50.0x | 50.0x | 50.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $42.31 | $67.78 | $105.71 | $149.26 | $192.03 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| P/S multiple | 30.0x | 50.0x | 98.0x |
| Diluted shares | 385M | 385M | 385M |
| Net debt | $1.07B | $1.07B | $1.07B |
| Implied P/E † | 152x | 256x | 505x |
| 2030 Price | $114.11 | $192.03 | $379.05 |
| NPV @ 17% | $56.21 | $94.60 | $186.73 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because IONQ is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $192.03 base case
IONQ catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ SkyWater merger close (Q2/Q3 2026) — unlocks in-house advanced packaging and manufacturing for 256-qubit systems and future 10K-qubit modules
+ Trump administration $2B quantum computing grants announced May 2026 — IonQ eligible as lead recipient; accelerates government adoption and DARPA contracts
+ Commercial InSAR revenue ramp (launched Q2 2026) — new high-margin software/services line; demonstrates diversification beyond hardware
+ 256-qubit system sales acceleration — first unit sold Q1; enterprise customers (hyperscalers, financials, pharma) expected to deploy through 2026-2027
+ 10,000-qubit architecture roadmap de-risk (2027-2028) — DARPA-validated fault-tolerance path validates long-term technical viability; unlocks premium valuation
+ Hyperscaler quantum adoption curve — Meta, Google, AWS quantum capex budgets becoming visible in 2027-2028; IonQ positioned as primary vendor
Key risks
- Cash burn and path-to-profitability — negative EBITDA of -$96.75M in Q1 2026 ($385M annualized); even with 50%+ growth, company may not reach GAAP profitability until 2028-2029
- Competitive intensity from big tech (IBM, Google, Amazon) and other quantum startups (Quantinuum, Atom Computing, Xanadu) — TAM is large but market consolidation risk is real
- Valuation compression risk — P/S of 117x and P/E of 126x are extreme; sector rotation or macro rate shock could trigger 30-50% correction
- Technology execution risk — trapped-ion approach vs. superconducting and photonic competitors; if performance benchmarks lag, customer adoption could stall
- Government funding uncertainty — Trump administration grants are positive but politicized; future administration could redirect spending or reduce quantum capex budgets
- Manufacturing integration risk — SkyWater merger must execute flawlessly to achieve cost and speed targets; integration delays could squeeze margins in 2027-2028
Methodology · IONQ Inc 2030 stock forecast model
IONQ Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 17 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for IONQ by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($1.07B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 17% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 30.0x / base 50.0x / bull 98.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
IONQ price target FAQ
What is the IONQ price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's IONQ Inc 2030 base case is $192.03 per share, with a bull case of $379.05 and bear case of $114.11. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 17% WACC is $94.60.
How is the IONQ Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The IONQ 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the IONQ price target account for dilution?
IONQ Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 373M to 385M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on IONQ stock?
17 analysts cover IONQ with an average 12-month price target of $68.63. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.