IMO
Imperial Oil Ltd
AMEX: IMO · ENERGY · OIL & GAS INTEGRATED
$121.29
+0.26% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$61.87B
P/E ratio
29.07
P/S ratio
1.32x
EPS (TTM)
$4.28
Dividend yield
2.51%
52W range
$71 – $139
Volume
0.6M
Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed IMO price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$121.29
Today
Analyst consensus
$137.00
+12.95% · 12M
2030 Base
$176.01
+45.12% future
NPV today
$117.31
@ 9% WACC
12 analysts:
0 Buy4 Hold10 Sell
Management guidance
Imperial Oil management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030. Q1 2026 guidance focused on 2026 upstream production and downstream throughput targets, with 2025 achieving record gross production of 438 koebd. Management emphasized capital discipline, $4.8B free cash flow generation in 2025, and $4.6B shareholder returns, but stopped short of specific 2026-2030 revenue guidance.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
IMO · Imperial Oil Ltd · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$176.01
NPV today: $117.31
Base case (2030)
$176.01
NPV today: $117.31
Bull case (2030)
$309.14
NPV today: $206.04
WallStSmart.com
IMO financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $47.1B | $56.2B | $58.8B | $62.1B | $64.6B | $66.4B |
| Revenue growth | -8.6% | 19.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Net margin | — | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% |
| EPS | $7.42 | $12.10 | $11.50 | $12.80 | $12.20 | $11.90 |
| Diluted shares | — | 487M | 490M | 493M | 496M | 499M |
| Net debt | — | $-3.90B | $-7.98B | $-12.30B | $-16.78B | $-21.39B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $123.42 | $136.19 | $150.80 | $163.98 | $176.01 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $66.4B | $66.4B | $66.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 499M | 499M | 499M |
| Net debt | $-21.39B | $-21.39B | $-21.39B |
| Implied P/E † | 15x | 15x | 26x |
| 2030 Price | $176.01 | $176.01 | $309.14 |
| NPV @ 9% | $117.31 | $117.31 | $206.04 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because IMO is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $176.01 base case
IMO catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Canadian federal-provincial carbon pricing framework through 2040 (industrial carbon pricing stability for oil sands producers)
+ Bitumen pipeline to British Columbia reducing transport costs and optionality for export markets
+ Renewable diesel facility at Strathcona (Canada's largest) coming online, diversifying revenue streams away pure crude exposure
+ Oil price recovery/stability: current consensus assumes $60-75 WTI; upside to $80-90 WTI would materially expand free cash flow and EPS
+ Syncrude ramp recovery from Q1 2026 downtime; operations returning to nameplate capacity (438+ koebd)
Key risks
- Analyst consensus shows 'Strong Sell' rating with 6 of 12 analysts recommending sell; stock trading 31% above consensus price target ($137 CAD vs. $184 CAD current), signaling significant valuation skepticism
- Long-term energy transition risk and ESG regulatory pressures in Canada; federal climate policy uncertainty despite recent provincial agreements
- Commodity price volatility: Q1 2026 showed weak upstream income and lower realized prices vs. prior year; crude sensitivity could compress margins in downside scenarios ($40-50 WTI would be material headwind)
- Oil demand normalization post-pandemic: global oil demand expected to plateau post-2030 in base-case IEA scenarios; Imperial Oil's heavy oil sands exposure faces structural long-term demand risk
- Refining margin compression: downstream segment faces secular pressure from EV adoption and renewable fuel blending mandates; dependent on gasoline/diesel demand persistence
Methodology · Imperial Oil Ltd 2030 stock forecast model
Imperial Oil Ltd 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for IMO by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-21.39B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.85) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
IMO price target FAQ
What is the IMO price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Imperial Oil Ltd 2030 base case is $176.01 per share, with a bull case of $309.14 and bear case of $176.01. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $117.31.
How is the Imperial Oil Ltd 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The IMO 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the IMO price target account for dilution?
Imperial Oil Ltd is projected to grow diluted share count from 484M to 499M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on IMO stock?
12 analysts cover IMO with an average 12-month price target of $137.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.