HNGE
Hinge Health, Inc.
NYSE: HNGE · HEALTHCARE · HEALTH INFORMATION SERVICES
$65.34
+0.91% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$5.06B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
7.82x
EPS (TTM)
$-8.91
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$30 – $67
Volume
1.3M
Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed HNGE price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$65.34
Today
Analyst consensus
$67.40
+3.15% · 12M
2030 Base
$242.31
+270.84% future
NPV today
$156.15
@ 10% WACC
20 analysts:
16 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Daniel Perez and management have not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030 in public guidance. However, Q1 2026 results showed $182.3M revenue (47.23% QoQ growth) with management reaffirming strong growth momentum and $250M share buyback authorization, signaling confidence in cash generation and sustained expansion. Company is targeting profitability in 2026 (already achieved $35.1M net income in Q1 2026) while reinvesting in R&D and AI capabilities.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
HNGE · Hinge Health, Inc. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$105.09
NPV today: $67.72
Base case (2030)
$242.31
NPV today: $156.15
Bull case (2030)
$425.27
NPV today: $274.06
WallStSmart.com
HNGE financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.6B | $0.8B | $1.1B | $1.5B | $2.0B | $2.5B |
| Revenue growth | 50.6% | 57.8% | 25.9% | 22.8% | 19.5% | 17.1% |
| Net margin | — | 15.8% | 16.3% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 13.2% |
| EPS | $-12.43 | $2.45 | $3.29 | $4.21 | $5.08 | $6.04 |
| Diluted shares | — | 55M | 55M | 55M | 55M | 55M |
| Net debt | — | $-397.29M | $-450.96M | $-524.15M | $-621.72M | $-743.70M |
| P/S multiple | — | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $85.03 | $108.88 | $146.81 | $194.34 | $242.31 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.5B | $2.5B | $2.5B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 5.0x | 9.0x |
| Diluted shares | 55M | 55M | 55M |
| Net debt | $-743.70M | $-743.70M | $-743.70M |
| Implied P/E † | 17x | 40x | 70x |
| 2030 Price | $105.09 | $242.31 | $425.27 |
| NPV @ 10% | $67.72 | $156.15 | $274.06 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because HNGE is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $242.31 base case
HNGE catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AI-powered musculoskeletal care market expansion — digital MSK solutions growing rapidly as employers seek cost reduction alternatives to traditional orthopedic care
+ Public sector penetration — now supports 300+ public sector organizations including 24 state governments; significant TAM expansion in government employee health plans
+ Margin inflection — company achieving profitability in 2026 (Q1 net income $35.1M on $182.3M revenue = 19.3% net margin) while maintaining 50%+ revenue growth; operating leverage should drive EPS growth 25-35% CAGR 2026-2029
+ Customer expansion and retention — digital-first care model shows strong unit economics; recurring revenue model supports predictable growth
+ AI integration roadmap — recent AI-powered care tools launch (October 2025); Migraine Care Program (April 2026) expanding clinical verticals beyond MSK
Key risks
- Valuation risk — P/S of 6.6x is significantly above healthcare services median (~1.5-2.0x); stock price momentum has created elevated expectations that revenue must sustain 30%+ growth through 2030 to justify current valuation
- Market saturation and competition — telehealth/digital care space becoming crowded; traditional healthcare incumbents (UnitedHealth, CVS, Anthem) investing in MSK solutions; price compression possible
- Regulatory headwinds — telehealth reimbursement rates under pressure in certain states; potential changes to virtual physical therapy coverage could impact customer acquisition economics
- Insider selling — CEO, CFO, and executive chairman engaged in pre-arranged 10b5-1 sales in April-May 2026; suggests some insiders believe current valuation is stretched
- Profitability sustainability — company only recently achieved positive net income (Q1 2026); must prove ability to grow revenue AND maintain/expand margins simultaneously
Methodology · Hinge Health, Inc. 2030 stock forecast model
Hinge Health, Inc. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 20 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for HNGE by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-743.70M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 5.0x / bull 9.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
HNGE price target FAQ
What is the HNGE price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Hinge Health, Inc. 2030 base case is $242.31 per share, with a bull case of $425.27 and bear case of $105.09. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $156.15.
How is the Hinge Health, Inc. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The HNGE 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the HNGE price target account for dilution?
Hinge Health, Inc. is projected to grow diluted share count from 55M to 55M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on HNGE stock?
20 analysts cover HNGE with an average 12-month price target of $67.40. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.