HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc
NYSE: HLT · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · LODGING
$315.53
+1.46% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$75.77B
P/E ratio
50.74
P/S ratio
14.94x
EPS (TTM)
$6.56
Dividend yield
0.18%
52W range
$241 – $345
Volume
1.6M
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed HLT price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$315.53
Today
Analyst consensus
$348.55
+10.46% · 12M
2030 Base
$227.59
-27.87% future
NPV today
$144.23
@ 10% WACC
25 analysts:
14 Buy9 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Hilton raised full-year 2026 RevPAR guidance in Q1 2026 earnings, signaling confidence in continued lodging demand. Management targets aggressive international expansion with 500+ pipeline hotels globally and expects strong unit growth through 2028. No specific 2030 revenue target disclosed, but guidance implies mid-to-high single-digit RevPAR growth (3-5%) compounded with unit growth (4-6% annually) to drive consolidated revenue expansion.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
HLT · Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$146.48
NPV today: $92.83
Base case (2030)
$227.59
NPV today: $144.23
Bull case (2030)
$470.92
NPV today: $298.44
WallStSmart.com
HLT financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.0B | $13.2B | $14.7B | $16.0B | $17.4B | $18.6B |
| Revenue growth | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% |
| Net margin | — | 15.8% | 16.9% | 17.3% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| EPS | $7.62 | $9.14 | $10.85 | $12.15 | $13.25 | $14.20 |
| Diluted shares | — | 228M | 229M | 229M | 229M | 230M |
| Net debt | — | $10.31B | $8.84B | $7.23B | $5.49B | $3.62B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $128.52 | $154.00 | $178.60 | $203.30 | $227.59 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.6B | $18.6B | $18.6B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 230M | 230M | 230M |
| Net debt | $3.62B | $3.62B | $3.62B |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 16x | 33x |
| 2030 Price | $146.48 | $227.59 | $470.92 |
| NPV @ 10% | $92.83 | $144.23 | $298.44 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because HLT is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $227.59 base case
HLT catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ International expansion acceleration (pipeline of 500+ hotels, particularly Middle East/Asia)
+ RevPAR growth from occupancy and pricing power in leisure/extended-stay segments
+ New brand rollouts (Atrio, YOTEL partnership) driving premium segmentation
+ Tech investments (AI Planner, digital ecosystem) improving conversion and loyalty retention
+ Asset-light model margin expansion as franchise fees scale without COGS pressure
Key risks
- Geopolitical instability (Middle East expansion) impacting international travel demand
- Lodging cycle maturity: RevPAR comps tighten in 2027-2028 as market saturation increases
- Macroeconomic slowdown reducing corporate/leisure travel, particularly in discretionary weekday bookings
- Franchise partner financial stress in rising rate environment impacts pipeline conversion
- Regulatory risk on loyalty currency accounting and franchise disclosure requirements
Methodology · Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 25 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for HLT by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($3.62B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.066) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
HLT price target FAQ
What is the HLT price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc 2030 base case is $227.59 per share, with a bull case of $470.92 and bear case of $146.48. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $144.23.
How is the Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The HLT 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the HLT price target account for dilution?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 228M to 230M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on HLT stock?
25 analysts cover HLT with an average 12-month price target of $348.55. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.