Hercules Capital, Inc.
NYSE: HCXY · FINANCIALS · INVESTMENT BANKING & INVESTMENT SERVICES
Updated 2026-06-02
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for HCXY.
Current price exceeds what fundamentals support. Risk/reward skewed unfavorably.
HCXY historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in HCXY's own 5Y range.
HCXY intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Standard discounted cash flow models produce unreliable output for unprofitable or near-breakeven companies. Revenue-based multiples such as P/S and EV/Sales, combined with the historical valuation position above, give a more reliable read for this stock.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
HCXY valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 19.37x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 0.00x
Is HCXY overvalued in 2026?
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY) currently trades at $24.80 per share with a market capitalization of $1,307,326,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock appears richly valued with a Smart Value Score of 18/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19.4x, above its 5-year median of 19.3x.
Looking at its own history, HCXY is currently trading more expensive than 90% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 90th percentile of its historical range, a zone where forward returns have typically been muted.
A standard DCF model does not produce reliable output for HCXY under current conditions. For unprofitable or near-breakeven companies, revenue-based multiples such as EV/Sales and historical P/S percentile are more informative than intrinsic value calculations.
The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: HCXY appears richly valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 18/100. At current levels the risk/reward is skewed against the buyer. A materially lower price or significant operational improvement would be needed to change the picture.
Frequently asked questions
Is HCXY overvalued?
HCXY scores 18/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade F), a weak overall profile. A standard DCF is unreliable here given the profitability profile, so valuation leans on revenue-based measures like EV/Sales and the P/S percentile below.
What is HCXY's fair value?
A standard DCF is unreliable for HCXY given its current profitability profile. Revenue-based approaches like EV/Sales or the historical P/S percentile are more informative for this stock.
What P/E ratio does HCXY trade at?
HCXY trades at a P/E of 19.4x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 19.3x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting above its own median means the stock is pricier than usual relative to its earnings.
Is HCXY a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for HCXY is Strong Sell, from a Smart Value Score of 18/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile skews cautious, and a better price or clearer operating improvement would strengthen the case. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does HCXY's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, HCXY sits in the 90th percentile of its own 5Y range, historically expensive relative to where it has traded. A high percentile means today's multiple is near the top of its historical band.
What is HCXY's Smart Value Score?
HCXY's Smart Value Score is 18/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.