GRND
Grindr Inc
NYSE: GRND · TECHNOLOGY · SOFTWARE - APPLICATION
$14.53
+1.87% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$2.07B
P/E ratio
25.30
P/S ratio
4.35x
EPS (TTM)
$0.46
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$10 – $24
Volume
1.5M
Grindr Inc (GRND) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed GRND price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$14.53
Today
Analyst consensus
$18.40
+26.63% · 12M
2030 Base
$17.99
+23.81% future
NPV today
$13.75
@ 6% WACC
6 analysts:
4 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
In Q1 2026 earnings (May 7, 2026), CEO George Arison guided FY2026 revenue to AT LEAST $535M, implying full-year growth of ~22% YoY from $439.9M (FY2025). Management highlighted continued double-digit revenue growth and improved adjusted EBITDA through 2026, driven by pricing optimization, AI-driven premiumization, and disciplined cost management. No explicit guidance provided for 2027-2030, but management emphasized sustained high-margin expansion and capital return priorities.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
GRND · Grindr Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$7.31
NPV today: $5.59
Base case (2030)
$17.99
NPV today: $13.75
Bull case (2030)
$28.68
NPV today: $21.92
WallStSmart.com
GRND financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.4B | $0.6B | $0.7B | $0.8B | $0.9B | $1.0B |
| Revenue growth | 27.6% | 26.2% | 24.5% | 20.3% | 14.7% | 10.4% |
| Net margin | — | 20.3% | 22.2% | 24.6% | 25.8% | 26.6% |
| EPS | $0.46 | $0.68 | $0.88 | $1.11 | $1.28 | $1.42 |
| Diluted shares | — | 180M | 182M | 184M | 186M | 187M |
| Net debt | — | $-46.85M | $-113.49M | $-190.30M | $-275.44M | $-367.98M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $10.29 | $12.51 | $14.59 | $16.36 | $17.99 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.0B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 187M | 187M | 187M |
| Net debt | $-367.98M | $-367.98M | $-367.98M |
| Implied P/E † | 5x | 13x | 20x |
| 2030 Price | $7.31 | $17.99 | $28.68 |
| NPV @ 6% | $5.59 | $13.75 | $21.92 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because GRND is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $17.99 base case
GRND catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AI-native app strategy and premium tier adoption driving pricing power and ARPU expansion
+ Geographic expansion and international user base growth in underpenetrated markets
+ Strategic monetization through Grindr+ and advanced premium features (AI matching, verified profiles, travel tools)
+ Margin expansion through operating leverage as revenue scales with disciplined cost structure
Key risks
- Controlling shareholder litigation and governance uncertainty (51.5% ownership by Zage; fiduciary duty investigations ongoing)
- User growth deceleration in mature North American market; reliance on LGBTQ+ niche limits total addressable market vs. mainstream dating apps
- Intense competition from Match Group (Tinder, Hinge) and emerging niche competitors (Sniffies received $100M Match Group investment in April 2026)
- Regulatory headwinds in key jurisdictions (EU digital regulation, data privacy laws) and content moderation complexity
- Monetization ceiling risk: smaller user base (~13-15M monthly actives estimated) than competitors limits whale user potential and ad revenue scaling
Methodology · Grindr Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Grindr Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 6 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (5% cumulative for GRND by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-367.98M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 6% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.275) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
GRND price target FAQ
What is the GRND price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Grindr Inc 2030 base case is $17.99 per share, with a bull case of $28.68 and bear case of $7.31. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 6% WACC is $13.75.
How is the Grindr Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The GRND 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the GRND price target account for dilution?
Grindr Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 178M to 187M by 2030 (a 5% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 5%.
What is the analyst consensus on GRND stock?
6 analysts cover GRND with an average 12-month price target of $18.40. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.