GRMN
Garmin Ltd
NYSE: GRMN · TECHNOLOGY · SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS
$242.38
-2.23% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$46.48B
P/E ratio
26.87
P/S ratio
6.23x
EPS (TTM)
$8.97
Dividend yield
1.77%
52W range
$185 – $273
Volume
0.8M
Garmin Ltd (GRMN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed GRMN price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$242.38
Today
Analyst consensus
$269.40
+11.15% · 12M
2030 Base
$206.49
-14.81% future
NPV today
$134.19
@ 10% WACC
11 analysts:
3 Buy4 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
Garmin raised FY2026 guidance in April 2026 earnings call, projecting full-year 2026 revenue of $8.11B (11.96% growth vs FY2025's $7.25B). Management explicitly stated aviation, outdoor, and fitness segments driving double-digit growth momentum. No specific 2027-2030 targets provided, but CEO commentary emphasized sustained demand in premium wearables and specialized navigation markets.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
GRMN · Garmin Ltd · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$88.43
NPV today: $57.47
Base case (2030)
$206.49
NPV today: $134.19
Bull case (2030)
$383.58
NPV today: $249.28
WallStSmart.com
GRMN financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.2B | $8.1B | $8.8B | $9.7B | $10.6B | $11.5B |
| Revenue growth | 15.1% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% |
| Net margin | — | 23.2% | 22.7% | 23.1% | 23.3% | 23.4% |
| EPS | $8.56 | $9.74 | $10.34 | $11.50 | $12.65 | $13.80 |
| Diluted shares | — | 193M | 194M | 194M | 195M | 195M |
| Net debt | — | $-3.10B | $-3.67B | $-4.30B | $-4.99B | $-5.73B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $141.80 | $155.46 | $171.67 | $188.73 | $206.49 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.5B | $11.5B | $11.5B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 195M | 195M | 195M |
| Net debt | $-5.73B | $-5.73B | $-5.73B |
| Implied P/E † | 6x | 15x | 28x |
| 2030 Price | $88.43 | $206.49 | $383.58 |
| NPV @ 10% | $57.47 | $134.19 | $249.28 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because GRMN is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $206.49 base case
GRMN catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Aviation segment expansion driven by premium pilot smartwatches (D2 Mach 2 Pro with inReach) and OEM partnerships with Embraer and major airframe manufacturers
+ Fitness wearables momentum — Forerunner 70/170 launch, FDA-cleared birth control integration, sustained demand for premium multisport watches (Fenix 7) targeting runners and triathletes
+ Marine segment growth from vertically-integrated sonar and mapping innovations (Spy Pole 360-degree sonar)
+ WhatsApp/smartwatch integration and ecosystem lock-in expanding installed base and recurring revenue opportunities
+ International expansion and OEM automotive partnerships in emerging markets
Key risks
- Consumer discretionary spending pullback in recession or macro slowdown reduces demand for premium wearables
- Intensifying competition from Apple (Watch Series), Garmin's vastly larger competitor in consumer wearables
- Supply chain disruption or component cost inflation eroding gross margins (currently 59.4%, high relative to sector)
- Market saturation in mature aviation and marine segments limiting TAM expansion
- Foreign exchange headwinds (Switzerland-based, significant international revenue exposure)
Methodology · Garmin Ltd 2030 stock forecast model
Garmin Ltd 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for GRMN by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-5.73B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.956) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
GRMN price target FAQ
What is the GRMN price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Garmin Ltd 2030 base case is $206.49 per share, with a bull case of $383.58 and bear case of $88.43. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $134.19.
How is the Garmin Ltd 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The GRMN 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the GRMN price target account for dilution?
Garmin Ltd is projected to grow diluted share count from 193M to 195M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on GRMN stock?
11 analysts cover GRMN with an average 12-month price target of $269.40. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.