FSLR
First Solar Inc
NASDAQ: FSLR · TECHNOLOGY · SOLAR
$267.31
-1.42% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$28.72B
P/E ratio
17.27
P/S ratio
5.30x
EPS (TTM)
$15.48
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$136 – $321
Volume
2.5M
First Solar Inc (FSLR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed FSLR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$267.31
Today
Analyst consensus
$247.00
-7.60% · 12M
2030 Base
$244.43
-8.56% future
NPV today
$138.58
@ 13% WACC
32 analysts:
19 Buy12 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
First Solar reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance following strong Q1 2026 results (revenue $1.04B, +23.6% YoY). Management has not provided specific revenue targets for 2027-2030, but emphasized sustained demand driven by the Inflation Reduction Act, US manufacturing expansion, and long-term utility contracts. The company is expanding US production capacity and targeting growth in India via the GameChange Solar partnership.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
FSLR · First Solar Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$109.24
NPV today: $61.93
Base case (2030)
$244.43
NPV today: $138.58
Bull case (2030)
$650.02
NPV today: $368.52
WallStSmart.com
FSLR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.2B | $6.4B | $8.1B | $10.2B | $12.3B | $14.6B |
| Revenue growth | 24.1% | 22.6% | 26.6% | 25.9% | 20.6% | 18.7% |
| Net margin | — | 34.5% | 38.2% | 40.7% | 41.9% | 42.5% |
| EPS | $14.21 | $20.50 | $28.75 | $38.50 | $47.75 | $57.50 |
| Diluted shares | — | 108M | 108M | 108M | 108M | 108M |
| Net debt | — | $1.02B | $1.34B | $1.74B | $2.23B | $2.80B |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $109.52 | $138.02 | $173.12 | $207.38 | $244.43 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.6B | $14.6B | $14.6B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 108M | 108M | 108M |
| Net debt | $2.80B | $2.80B | $2.80B |
| Implied P/E † | 2x | 4x | 11x |
| 2030 Price | $109.24 | $244.43 | $650.02 |
| NPV @ 13% | $61.93 | $138.58 | $368.52 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because FSLR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $244.43 base case
FSLR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Inflation Reduction Act demand sustaining utility-scale solar project pipeline through 2028
+ US manufacturing capacity expansion (2 new US facilities announced) reducing supply constraints
+ India market penetration via GameChange Solar partnership and domestic sourcing compliance
+ Long-term utility contracts providing revenue visibility and reducing project-cycle volatility
+ Thin-film technology differentiation in high-efficiency utility-scale segment
Key risks
- Policy dependency on IRA tax credits; changes to federal clean energy incentives could dampen demand
- Project-cycle volatility and permitting delays affecting deployment schedules
- Pricing pressure from Chinese manufacturers and import competition despite tariff protections
- Interest rate sensitivity affecting utility customer capex budgets
- Supply chain concentration and global competition in thin-film modules
Methodology · First Solar Inc 2030 stock forecast model
First Solar Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 32 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for FSLR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($2.80B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 13% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.564) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
FSLR price target FAQ
What is the FSLR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's First Solar Inc 2030 base case is $244.43 per share, with a bull case of $650.02 and bear case of $109.24. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 13% WACC is $138.58.
How is the First Solar Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The FSLR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the FSLR price target account for dilution?
First Solar Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 107M to 108M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on FSLR stock?
32 analysts cover FSLR with an average 12-month price target of $247.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.