FROG
Jfrog Ltd
NASDAQ: FROG · TECHNOLOGY · SOFTWARE - APPLICATION
$76.66
-2.60% today
Updated 2026-06-24
Market cap
$9.42B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
16.71x
EPS (TTM)
$-0.53
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$34 – $89
Volume
2.6M
Jfrog Ltd (FROG) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed FROG price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$76.66
Today
Analyst consensus
$74.74
-2.50% · 12M
2030 Base
$87.18
+13.72% future
NPV today
$55.95
@ 10% WACC
20 analysts:
18 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
JFrog raised FY2026 guidance to $628-632M (midpoint $630M), implying 18.5% YoY growth from $531.84M in FY2025. Management emphasized cloud revenue now exceeds 50% of total revenue with 50% YoY growth in Q1 2026, and highlighted AI-driven demand for software supply chain security as a primary growth driver through 2028+.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
FROG · Jfrog Ltd · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$52.11
NPV today: $33.44
Base case (2030)
$87.18
NPV today: $55.95
Bull case (2030)
$169.01
NPV today: $108.46
WallStSmart.com
FROG financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | $0.7B | $0.9B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Revenue growth | 24.1% | 18.5% | 24.4% | 22.0% | 19.2% | 16.2% |
| Net margin | — | 16.1% | 18.6% | 20.3% | 21.3% | 21.8% |
| EPS | $0.50 | $0.92 | $1.35 | $1.78 | $2.18 | $2.55 |
| Diluted shares | — | 123M | 124M | 126M | 127M | 128M |
| Net debt | — | $-81.13M | $-194.51M | $-333.08M | $-496.85M | $-685.82M |
| P/S multiple | — | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $40.56 | $52.25 | $63.93 | $75.54 | $87.18 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 7.0x | 14.0x |
| Diluted shares | 128M | 128M | 128M |
| Net debt | $-685.82M | $-685.82M | $-685.82M |
| Implied P/E † | 20x | 34x | 66x |
| 2030 Price | $52.11 | $87.18 | $169.01 |
| NPV @ 10% | $33.44 | $55.95 | $108.46 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because FROG is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $87.18 base case
FROG catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Cloud revenue acceleration (50% YoY in Q1 2026) driven by AI workload adoption and NVIDIA integration
+ Software supply chain security as critical infrastructure for AI governance — expanding TAM
+ Enterprise customer concentration strength (customers >$1M ARR growing rapidly; cloud now majority of revenue)
+ Margin expansion pathway — narrowing net losses ($-71.8M FY2025 to profitability targeted 2026-2027)
Key risks
- High valuation (15.5x P/S, 63.6x forward P/E) leaves limited margin of error; multiple compression risk if growth decelerates
- CTO insider selling (75K shares in May 2026) signals potential overvaluation concerns at management level
- Concentration in hyperscaler capex — if enterprise cloud spending slows, cloud revenue growth could decelerate sharply
- Competition from larger players (GitHub, GitLab, CloudBees) in DevOps/CI-CD space
- Profitability timeline unclear — still unprofitable on GAAP basis despite 25%+ revenue growth
Methodology · Jfrog Ltd 2030 stock forecast model
Jfrog Ltd 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 20 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (6% cumulative for FROG by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-685.82M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.021) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 7.0x / bull 14.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
FROG price target FAQ
What is the FROG price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Jfrog Ltd 2030 base case is $87.18 per share, with a bull case of $169.01 and bear case of $52.11. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $55.95.
How is the Jfrog Ltd 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The FROG 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the FROG price target account for dilution?
Jfrog Ltd is projected to grow diluted share count from 121M to 128M by 2030 (a 6% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 6%.
What is the analyst consensus on FROG stock?
20 analysts cover FROG with an average 12-month price target of $74.74. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.