FN
Fabrinet
NYSE: FN · TECHNOLOGY · ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS
$649.53
-13.09% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$21.89B
P/E ratio
52.36
P/S ratio
5.17x
EPS (TTM)
$11.67
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$248 – $749
Volume
0.8M
Fabrinet (FN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed FN price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$649.53
Today
Analyst consensus
$749.00
+15.31% · 12M
2030 Base
$961.95
+48.10% future
NPV today
$589.67
@ 11% WACC
15 analysts:
7 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Fabrinet management has provided Q4 FY2026 guidance of $1.25B-$1.29B revenue (midpoint ~$1.27B), implying full FY2026 revenue of ~$4.74B (already reflected in analyst consensus). Management emphasized sustained demand from hyperscaler AI/datacom capex, new CPO program wins, and manufacturing capacity expansion in Thailand and Vietnam. CEO commentary indicates multi-year contracted backlog supporting high single-digit to mid-teens organic growth through FY2027-2028, with supply constraints easing as capacity comes online.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
FN · Fabrinet · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$668.13
NPV today: $409.56
Base case (2030)
$961.95
NPV today: $589.67
Bull case (2030)
$1,843.39
NPV today: $1,129.99
WallStSmart.com
FN financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.4B | $4.7B | $6.2B | $7.7B | $9.2B | $10.6B |
| Revenue growth | 18.6% | 38.6% | 29.8% | 24.9% | 19.6% | 15.3% |
| Net margin | — | 10.8% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.5% |
| EPS | $6.28 | $14.22 | $19.50 | $24.75 | $29.50 | $33.85 |
| Diluted shares | — | 36M | 36M | 36M | 36M | 36M |
| Net debt | — | $-1.19B | $-1.51B | $-1.90B | $-2.36B | $-2.90B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $429.75 | $555.85 | $693.86 | $831.22 | $961.95 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.6B | $10.6B | $10.6B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 36M | 36M | 36M |
| Net debt | $-2.90B | $-2.90B | $-2.90B |
| Implied P/E † | 20x | 28x | 55x |
| 2030 Price | $668.13 | $961.95 | $1,843.39 |
| NPV @ 11% | $409.56 | $589.67 | $1,129.99 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because FN is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $961.95 base case
FN catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Optical communications supercycle driven by AI/hyperscaler datacom capex (Meta $60B, MSFT $80B+ announced)
+ Co-packaged optics (CPO) and 800ZR adoption acceleration with Raytec minority stake and in-house CPO capability
+ Manufacturing capacity ramp in Thailand (Chonburi facility) and Vietnam eliminating supply constraints by late 2026/2027
+ Multi-year merchant and hyperscaler program wins with long-term RPO (committed backlog)
Key risks
- Customer concentration risk: hyperscaler capex pullback or demand shift to in-house manufacturing (e.g., Meta/Google custom ASICs)
- Supply chain volatility and labor-intensive assembly model vulnerable to automation/reshoring trends
- Gross margin compression if supply constraints ease faster than expected, intensifying price competition
- Valuation risk: P/E of 56x requires sustained 30%+ growth; any growth deceleration below 20% triggers multiple compression
Methodology · Fabrinet 2030 stock forecast model
Fabrinet 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 15 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for FN by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-2.90B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.217) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
FN price target FAQ
What is the FN price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Fabrinet 2030 base case is $961.95 per share, with a bull case of $1,843.39 and bear case of $668.13. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $589.67.
How is the Fabrinet 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The FN 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the FN price target account for dilution?
Fabrinet is projected to grow diluted share count from 36M to 36M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on FN stock?
15 analysts cover FN with an average 12-month price target of $749.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.