FIX
Comfort Systems USA Inc
NYSE: FIX · INDUSTRIALS · ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION
$2,032.98
-3.69% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$66.26B
P/E ratio
54.35
P/S ratio
6.54x
EPS (TTM)
$34.65
Dividend yield
0.13%
52W range
$468 – $2,073
Volume
0.4M
Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed FIX price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$2,032.98
Today
Analyst consensus
$1,923.00
-5.41% · 12M
2030 Base
$3,098.68
+52.42% future
NPV today
$1,700.60
@ 14% WACC
9 analysts:
7 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not issued explicit 2026-2030 revenue targets in public guidance. However, CEO Brian Lane emphasized a record $12.45B backlog in Q1 2026 (81% YoY growth), with strong visibility into 2026-2027 revenue from contracted work in data centers and advanced technology infrastructure. The company targets 30%+ annual growth through continued market share gains in the hyperscale AI/data center construction segment, driven by committed capex from Meta, Microsoft, Google, and other hyperscalers through 2028.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
FIX · Comfort Systems USA Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$2,144.20
NPV today: $1,176.77
Base case (2030)
$3,098.68
NPV today: $1,700.60
Bull case (2030)
$5,962.12
NPV today: $3,272.10
WallStSmart.com
FIX financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.1B | $12.8B | $17.2B | $22.4B | $28.1B | $33.6B |
| Revenue growth | 29.5% | 40.7% | 34.4% | 30.2% | 25.4% | 19.6% |
| Net margin | — | 12.5% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| EPS | $28.90 | $45.50 | $63.25 | $84.50 | $108.75 | $130.00 |
| Diluted shares | — | 35M | 35M | 35M | 35M | 35M |
| Net debt | — | $-781.87M | $-2.06B | $-3.71B | $-5.79B | $-8.28B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $1,113.05 | $1,524.19 | $2,014.45 | $2,559.30 | $3,098.68 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.6B | $33.6B | $33.6B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 35M | 35M | 35M |
| Net debt | $-8.28B | $-8.28B | $-8.28B |
| Implied P/E † | 17x | 24x | 46x |
| 2030 Price | $2,144.20 | $3,098.68 | $5,962.12 |
| NPV @ 14% | $1,176.77 | $1,700.60 | $3,272.10 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because FIX is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $3,098.68 base case
FIX catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Record $12.45B backlog provides 12+ months of revenue visibility with strong conversion rates; backlog grew 81% YoY
+ Hyperscaler capex commitments: Meta ($60B+ AI capex 2024-2026), Microsoft ($80B+ AI infrastructure 2024-2026), Google, Amazon driving sustained data center construction demand through 2028
+ Modular capacity expansion: Company scaling prefabrication capabilities for HVAC/electrical systems, enabling higher margins and faster project delivery in booming data center market
+ Market share gains: FIX is #1-2 player in hyperscale data center MEP (mechanical, electrical, plumbing) services; consolidating fragmented market
+ Margin expansion: Operating margins improved to 15.68% in Q1 2026; modular/repeatable work model supports 16-18% margins by 2028-2029
Key risks
- Data center capex deceleration: PwC report suggests potential shift from data center infrastructure spending to digital networking by late 2020s; reliance on 3-4 hyperscaler customers creates concentration risk
- Labor availability and wage inflation: Construction labor shortages and rising wages could compress margins; company acknowledges labor as constraint on growth
- Valuation risk: Stock trading at 58.8x P/E and 6.37x P/S; currently priced for 30%+ perpetual growth; any slowdown below 20% could trigger significant repricing
- Macro headwinds: Rising Treasury yields (2.5%+ range) and persistent inflation pressuring construction costs and customer capex decisions
- Insider selling: ~$100M in insider sales over past 90 days signals caution despite operational strength; stock near 52-week highs
Methodology · Comfort Systems USA Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Comfort Systems USA Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 9 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for FIX by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-8.28B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.705) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
FIX price target FAQ
What is the FIX price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Comfort Systems USA Inc 2030 base case is $3,098.68 per share, with a bull case of $5,962.12 and bear case of $2,144.20. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $1,700.60.
How is the Comfort Systems USA Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The FIX 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the FIX price target account for dilution?
Comfort Systems USA Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 35M to 35M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on FIX stock?
9 analysts cover FIX with an average 12-month price target of $1,923.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.