FAST
Fastenal Company
NASDAQ: FAST · INDUSTRIALS · INDUSTRIAL DISTRIBUTION
$46.57
+0.39% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$51.35B
P/E ratio
39.58
P/S ratio
6.08x
EPS (TTM)
$1.13
Dividend yield
2.05%
52W range
$39 – $50
Volume
7.0M
Fastenal Company (FAST) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed FAST price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$46.57
Today
Analyst consensus
$46.66
+0.19% · 12M
2030 Base
$37.31
-19.88% future
NPV today
$25.51
@ 9% WACC
22 analysts:
5 Buy6 Hold5 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided specific multi-year revenue targets through 2030. Q1 2026 guidance emphasized cautious outlooks citing gross margin pressure from tariffs and inflation. April 2026 daily sales growth remained double-digit, signaling resilient industrial demand. No explicit revenue floor or ceiling guidance for 2026-2030 periods disclosed.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
FAST · Fastenal Company · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$12.66
NPV today: $8.65
Base case (2030)
$37.31
NPV today: $25.51
Bull case (2030)
$74.29
NPV today: $50.79
WallStSmart.com
FAST financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.2B | $9.4B | $10.7B | $11.8B | $13.0B | $14.2B |
| Revenue growth | 8.7% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% |
| Net margin | — | 15.6% | 16.0% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.4% |
| EPS | $1.10 | $1.28 | $1.48 | $1.68 | $1.85 | $2.02 |
| Diluted shares | — | 1148M | 1148M | 1148M | 1148M | 1148M |
| Net debt | — | $76.85M | $-22.61M | $-133.27M | $-254.68M | $-386.82M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $24.63 | $27.85 | $31.08 | $34.19 | $37.31 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.2B | $14.2B | $14.2B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 1148M | 1148M | 1148M |
| Net debt | $-386.82M | $-386.82M | $-386.82M |
| Implied P/E † | 6x | 19x | 37x |
| 2030 Price | $12.66 | $37.31 | $74.29 |
| NPV @ 9% | $8.65 | $25.51 | $50.79 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because FAST is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $37.31 base case
FAST catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Continued expansion of on-site Fastenal Managed Inventory (FMI) penetration with contract customers, driving recurring high-margin revenue
+ Vending and digital technology adoption accelerating inventory management efficiency, increasing customer stickiness and wallet share
+ US industrial production and construction recovery post-tariff normalization; manufacturing PMI resilience supports MRO spending
+ Dividend growth consistency (26-year streak) attracting income-focused institutional capital, supporting valuation multiple stability
Key risks
- Gross margin compression from tariffs, inflation, and freight costs reducing operating leverage despite revenue growth
- Economic cyclicality: late-cycle industrial demand could soften 2027-2028 if manufacturing activity decelerates
- Competitive pricing pressure from larger distributors (Grainger, Ferguson) and e-commerce channels limiting pricing power
- Execution risk on capex expansion (new distribution facilities, FMI infrastructure) not converting to proportional revenue/margin uplift
Methodology · Fastenal Company 2030 stock forecast model
Fastenal Company 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 22 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for FAST by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-386.82M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.744) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
FAST price target FAQ
What is the FAST price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Fastenal Company 2030 base case is $37.31 per share, with a bull case of $74.29 and bear case of $12.66. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $25.51.
How is the Fastenal Company 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The FAST 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the FAST price target account for dilution?
Fastenal Company is projected to grow diluted share count from 1148M to 1148M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on FAST stock?
22 analysts cover FAST with an average 12-month price target of $46.66. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.