WallStSmart
FAST

Fastenal Company

NASDAQ: FAST · INDUSTRIALS · INDUSTRIAL DISTRIBUTION

$43.71
-2.17% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$51.58B
P/E ratio
39.76
P/S ratio
6.11x
EPS (TTM)
$1.13
Dividend yield
2.06%
52W range
$38 – $50
Volume
7.7M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Fastenal Company (FAST) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$43.71
Consensus
$45.88
+4.96%
2030 Target
$125.01
+186.00%
DCF
$108.23
+56.56% MoS
8 analysts:
1 Buy5 Hold4 Sell

Management guidance

No specific revenue targets or guidance ranges provided by management for 2026-2030 period. CEO commentary focuses on digital expansion, supply chain optimization, and key account growth strategies rather than quantified revenue targets. Company guidance is qualitative rather than quantitative.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$208.35
$11.9B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$125.01
$11.9B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$83.34
$11.9B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$7.3B$7.5B$8.2B$9.2B$10.0B$10.7B$11.3B$11.9B
Revenue growth—2.7%8.7%12.2%8.3%6.9%5.9%5.7%
EPS$2.02$1.52$1.10$1.24$1.36$1.48$1.58$1.68
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$97.23$101.86$111.12$115.75$125.01

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ New $90M distribution center in Georgia (spring 2027 opening) - capacity expansion and automation
+ Digital sales channel growth and e-commerce platform expansion driving margin improvement
+ Manufacturing sector recovery following cyclical downturn - Fastenal positioned as recovery play
+ Key account growth and supply chain partnerships in Mexico and international markets
+ Tariff uncertainty and potential restructuring - could increase inventory costs but also customer demand for secured supply chains
Key risks
- Persistent tariff uncertainty impacting customer spending and inventory management - Q4 2025 earnings cited tariff-driven inventory cost concerns
- Consistent EPS forecast misses despite revenue meeting expectations - suggests margin compression or operational headwinds
- Sluggish U.S. industrial manufacturing economy - industrial production weak heading into 2026
- High valuation multiple (42.5x P/E, 6.42x P/S) limits multiple expansion upside
- Analyst consensus moving toward 'Hold' rating with price targets flat to slightly positive, suggesting limited visibility

Methodology

Fastenal Company's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 8 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.