EME
EMCOR Group Inc
NYSE: EME · INDUSTRIALS · ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION
$931.50
-3.31% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$36.65B
P/E ratio
27.63
P/S ratio
2.07x
EPS (TTM)
$29.79
Dividend yield
0.16%
52W range
$477 – $952
Volume
0.4M
EMCOR Group Inc (EME) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed EME price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$931.50
Today
Analyst consensus
$799.00
-14.22% · 12M
2030 Base
$802.13
-13.89% future
NPV today
$497.86
@ 11% WACC
13 analysts:
10 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
EME raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $18.5B–$19.25B (midpoint $18.875B, +11.1% vs. 2025's $16.99B) following record Q1 2026 results ($4.63B revenue, +19.7% QoQ). CEO Tony Guzzi emphasized sustained AI data center/mission-critical infrastructure demand with record $15.62B in RPO (remaining performance obligations), providing high visibility into 2026–2027 revenue. Management implicitly signals 10–15% annual growth 2026–2027 given RPO conversion rates and stated confidence in infrastructure supercycle.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
EME · EMCOR Group Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$802.13
NPV today: $497.86
Base case (2030)
$802.13
NPV today: $497.86
Bull case (2030)
$1,468.20
NPV today: $911.28
WallStSmart.com
EME financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.0B | $19.1B | $21.8B | $24.5B | $27.2B | $29.6B |
| Revenue growth | 16.6% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 8.8% |
| Net margin | — | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| EPS | $25.89 | $29.57 | $35.50 | $40.75 | $45.20 | $49.10 |
| Diluted shares | — | 44M | 44M | 44M | 44M | 44M |
| Net debt | — | $-864.69M | $-1.96B | $-3.19B | $-4.56B | $-6.05B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $449.25 | $533.49 | $623.10 | $714.63 | $802.13 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.6B | $29.6B | $29.6B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 44M | 44M | 44M |
| Net debt | $-6.05B | $-6.05B | $-6.05B |
| Implied P/E † | 16x | 16x | 30x |
| 2030 Price | $802.13 | $802.13 | $1,468.20 |
| NPV @ 11% | $497.86 | $497.86 | $911.28 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because EME is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $802.13 base case
EME catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AI data center supercycle: $3T+ capex cycle through 2030 (hyperscaler commitments: Meta $60B, Microsoft $80B+); EME's ~50% YoY data center revenue growth in Q1 2026 is early innings
+ Record $15.62B RPO at Q1 2026: ~85–90% conversion to revenue over 18–24 months provides runway into 2027–2028; visibility far exceeds industry peers
+ Electrical and mechanical construction margin expansion: data center projects carry 10–14% margins vs. 7–9% legacy business; mix shift toward mission-critical infrastructure should drive 50–100 bps EBIT margin expansion annually through 2028
+ Institutional investor confidence: TimesSquare Capital (2nd largest position, 2.3% AUM), FMR LLC (4.4% stake); recent dividend raise (3/5Y: +22.8–25.6%) signals cash generation confidence
+ Semiconductor/healthcare construction surge: EME also capturing manufacturing fab builds and hospital/healthcare system upgrades; diversification beyond hyperscaler data centers de-risks 2028–2030
Key risks
- Valuation cliff: P/E 31.3x vs. sector ~20x; stock up 80.5% YTD; any 2027 guidance miss (if RPO conversion slows) triggers 20–30% drawdown
- Labor cost inflation: construction wage growth outpacing productivity gains; if labor costs rise >5% CAGR, EBIT margins compress despite high revenue growth
- Hyperscaler capex volatility: data center spending subject to macro/Fed policy shifts; if Meta, Microsoft, Google reduce 2027 capex by 25%+, EME's backlog conversion extends and revenue growth drops to 5–8%
- Competition from vertically integrated mega-contractors: MasTec, Quanta Services, Sterling Infrastructure also targeting AI/data center supercycle; EME's 25–30% market share in MEP/electrical construction could compress if larger rivals undercut pricing
- Insider selling pressure: CEO and director sold >$34M in May 2026; potential signal of valuation concern or diversification; continued insider selling could weigh on retail confidence
Methodology · EMCOR Group Inc 2030 stock forecast model
EMCOR Group Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 13 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for EME by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-6.05B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.169) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
EME price target FAQ
What is the EME price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's EMCOR Group Inc 2030 base case is $802.13 per share, with a bull case of $1,468.20 and bear case of $802.13. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $497.86.
How is the EMCOR Group Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The EME 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the EME price target account for dilution?
EMCOR Group Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 44M to 44M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on EME stock?
13 analysts cover EME with an average 12-month price target of $799.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.