DECK
Deckers Outdoor Corporation
NYSE: DECK · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · FOOTWEAR & ACCESSORIES
$112.50
-1.17% today
Updated 2026-06-15
Market cap
$15.81B
P/E ratio
16.22
P/S ratio
2.89x
EPS (TTM)
$7.02
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$79 – $127
Volume
2.0M
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed DECK price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$112.50
Today
Analyst consensus
$122.42
+8.82% · 12M
2030 Base
$95.90
-14.76% future
NPV today
$59.77
@ 11% WACC
24 analysts:
11 Buy11 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
No specific long-term revenue targets disclosed by management in available filings. Most recent guidance embedded in analyst consensus: FY2026 revenue $5.54B (+11.18% YoY), FY2027 revenue $5.94B (+7.09% YoY). Company has not provided explicit 2028-2030 targets; guidance relies on brand momentum (Hoka, UGG) and DTC expansion strategy.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
DECK · Deckers Outdoor Corporation · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$95.90
NPV today: $59.77
Base case (2030)
$95.90
NPV today: $59.77
Bull case (2030)
$210.01
NPV today: $130.89
WallStSmart.com
DECK financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.5B | $6.2B | $6.8B | $7.5B | $8.2B |
| Revenue growth | 9.4% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% |
| Net margin | — | 18.3% | 18.7% | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| EPS | $7.04 | $7.90 | $8.95 | $9.85 | $10.72 |
| Diluted shares | — | 143M | 143M | 143M | 143M |
| Net debt | — | $-3.05B | $-3.82B | $-4.66B | $-5.57B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $64.55 | $74.69 | $85.09 | $95.90 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.2B | $8.2B | $8.2B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 3.0x |
| Diluted shares | 143M | 143M | 143M |
| Net debt | $-5.57B | $-5.57B | $-5.57B |
| Implied P/E † | 9x | 9x | 20x |
| 2030 Price | $95.90 | $95.90 | $210.01 |
| NPV @ 11% | $59.77 | $59.77 | $130.89 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because DECK is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $95.90 base case
DECK catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Hoka brand acceleration: growing 40%+ YoY, now represents ~40% of revenue and highest-margin segment
+ UGG seasonal strength and lifestyle expansion into apparel/accessories; DTC penetration expansion (currently ~60% of sales)
+ International expansion, particularly APAC (currently underpenetrated vs. North America; TAM opportunity $10B+)
+ Operating leverage: gross margin ~59%, operating margin ~24%; leverage inherent in DTC model as scale increases
+ Capital allocation discipline: strong free cash flow (~$1B annually) enables brand acquisitions and shareholder returns
Key risks
- Fashion cyclicality: UGG and Hoka dependent on continued consumer discretionary demand and trend relevance; footwear/lifestyle brands are inherently vulnerable to style shifts
- Growth deceleration from high base: Hoka growth at 40%+ compounds to extremely large absolute dollars by 2029-2030; mathematical deceleration inevitable as TAM saturates in core markets
- Macro sensitivity: consumer discretionary retail is highly exposed to recession, inflation, and consumer spending pullback; evidence of caution in analyst downgrades (Wells Fargo May 2026)
- Supply chain and tariff risk: footwear manufacturing concentrated in Vietnam/Indonesia; tariff environment (2026 onward) poses margin headwind; geopolitical disruption noted in peer Birkenstock
- Competitive intensity: Nike, On Running, Saucony (Wolverine), Merrell (Wolverine) all competing in performance footwear; UGG faces lifestyle/luxury competition from Coach (Tapestry), Birkenstock, generic boot makers
Methodology · Deckers Outdoor Corporation 2030 stock forecast model
Deckers Outdoor Corporation 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 24 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for DECK by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-5.57B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.141) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 3.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
DECK price target FAQ
What is the DECK price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Deckers Outdoor Corporation 2030 base case is $95.90 per share, with a bull case of $210.01 and bear case of $95.90. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $59.77.
How is the Deckers Outdoor Corporation 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The DECK 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the DECK price target account for dilution?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation is projected to grow diluted share count from 139M to 143M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on DECK stock?
24 analysts cover DECK with an average 12-month price target of $122.42. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.